No way to know if 'misleading information' affected election results in B.C. riding: report
‘Not possible’ to link misleading media narratives with how people voted, says commissioner Hogue
The final report on foreign interference in Canadian politics found there is no way to know whether "misleading information" affected results in a B.C. riding during the 2021 federal election, but the defeated candidate in the riding says he still feels vindicated by the investigation's findings.
Justice Marie-Josée Hogue, commissioner of the public inquiry into foreign interference, found that it's possible that a misinformation campaign that China was likely involved in could have impacted the results in the Steveston-Richmond East riding.
However, she said it's "not possible to directly link misleading media narratives with how any given voter cast their ballot."
"And even if I were to assume that some votes were changed, there is no way to know whether enough votes were changed to affect the result."
Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu, who was first elected in the B.C. riding in 2019 after coming second in 2015, was defeated in the 2021 election by Liberal Parm Bains by a count of 16,543 votes to 13,066.
He's now calling on Canada to do more to counter foreign interference efforts in future elections.
Hogue issued her final report on Tuesday after conducting a 16-month investigation into how foreign actors have tried to interfere in democratic institutions and the electoral process in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections.
She concluded that disinformation and misinformation in media and on social networks are the "single biggest risk" to Canadian democracy.
Her seven-volume report follows a preliminary report released in May 2024 in which Hogue singled out the 2021 results in Steveston-Richmond East, saying there was a "reasonable possibility" that a foreign interference campaign targeting Chiu may have cost him the seat.
Misinformation painted Conservatives as Anti-PRC, report says
During the 2021 campaign, misinformation about the Conservative Party, Erin O'Toole — who was Conservative leader at the time — and Chiu appeared in media outlets and social media sites with ties to the People's Republic of China (PRC).
"These articles painted the Conservative Party and the candidates O'Toole and Chiu as anti-PRC and attempted to dissuade Chinese Canadians from voting for them," according to Hogue.
Chiu has said he believes he was targeted over his proposed bill to set up a public registry in Canada that would track foreign influence campaigns.
Hogue's final report said she's able to conclude that there is "a reasonable possibility" that the media narrative "could have impacted the result" in the riding.
"I do not go any further than that. It shows, however, how important it is to combat disinformation," she said.
'Strong indicators' of PRC involvement
Hogue added that although the misinformation has not been definitively linked to the PRC, there are "strong indicators" of PRC involvement even if it didn't give direct orders.
"Those who wish to assist the PRC often know what to do without being told. This is part of what makes PRC interference so insidious, and so difficult to detect," Hogue said.
'Clear vindication': Chiu
Chiu said the report's findings are a "clear vindication" of what he's been saying for years.
"As I said, it wasn't the first time I lost in a federal election, but what happened in 2021 was unusual and exceptional. And it's something that we as a country must face," he told CBC's On The Coast Tuesday.
Chiu says he plans to run in the next federal election but is concerned that foreign actors may try to influence the results.
"I cannot guarantee you that foreign governments like India, Russia, Iran or China would not continue. In fact, the only guarantee I can provide you is yes, they will," he said.
"But I am pretty sure that they will not be using the same tactic and strategy as they did in 2021 [and] 2019."
Chris Tenove, assistant director of the Centre for the Study of Democratic Institutions at the University of British Columbia, says it's often difficult to find a "smoking gun" when investigating cases of potential foreign interference and how they could sway election results.
"There's lots of things that influence how people vote and reading a set of stories in one day, it's hard to show that it was just that that changed their mind versus something else," he said. "This is a perennial problem."
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With files from Leanne Yu, Meera Bains, Phil Ling, Peter Zimonjic and The Canadian Press