How Russia is dealing with off-script realities of its war on Ukraine

Multiple drones reportedly flew across Russian territory this week, prompting comment from Moscow.

Officials blamed Ukraine, but claimed the incursions didn't cause any significant damage.

Between Monday night and Tuesday, four drones were said to have been seen in the border region of Belgorod and another in nearby Bryansk, while a different drone reportedly struck an oil refinery in Tuapse, according to The Associated Press. A separate drone crashed in Adygea, while another ended up in Gubastovo, much closer to Moscow.

These episodes, for which Ukraine has not claimed credit, seemingly marked more off-script moments for Russia during its ongoing, bloody and costly invasion of its neighbour.

Yet Russia doesn't call it a war, instead calling it a "special military operation" — a euphemism it has employed throughout the conflict.

Russia watchers say Moscow's narrative has a central tension — its message that everything is going according to plan being challenged by contradictory events that demand explanation.

"When it comes to drones, or rocket strikes, or the blowing up of the Crimea bridge a few months ago, this tension comes into play," said Stanislav Budnitsky, a Russia media politics expert at the Wilson Center in Washington, D.C.

Reality and TV

Budnitsky said the way that Russia's Channel One, a state broadcaster, described the recent drone attacks is telling.

He watched a report about the drones on a nightly program. It lasted 30 seconds and was the fifth item shown to viewers that night.

The report emphasized the fact the attacks failed and that "they were all intercepted."

The drone report was juxtaposed by a story about how effective the systems were that defend Russia, with particular focus on those capabilities in the parts of Ukraine it recently annexed.

"I don't think that's an accident that immediately followed the report that some drones did make it to Russia," said Budnitsky.

He also noted news item on the drones was brief— a report about chess that aired later in the broadcast was given twice the time.

Moscow's talking points

Ukraine has proven its ability to strike targets in Russian-held regions such as Crimea, but also in Russia itself.

However, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, tweeted Wednesday that Ukraine "is waging a defensive war to de-occupy all its territories" and that it "doesn't strike at Russian territory."

On the Russian side of the border, however, officials' statements "acknowledge that these attacks are happening," said Oleg Ignatov, a Brussels-based Russia analyst with the International Crisis Group, a non-governmental organization. "They are not denying it."

Ignatov said it seems that some drones may be able to evade Russian defences, or those systems are not completely effective.

"As far as the public is concerned, I don't see any … comments on this," he said, noting state media coverage focused on talking points from Russian officials.

But in reading what officials are saying about these recent drone incidents, some experts see another story being told.

"The thing is, Russia wanted to have some kind of blitzkrieg, but it is already the second year of the [conflict]," said Olena Morozova, an assistant professor of Ukrainian studies at the University of British Columbia.

"So, right now, they need something else to boost it up," which Morozova said leads officials to find something to point that people can fear.

"In this situation, it is: 'Look here … Ukraine is trying to cross borders and this is fearsome."

Morozova, who was in Kharkiv when Russia began shelling it last year, said Moscow also uses this messaging as a way of touting its defence capabilities while conveying "you should be scared, you should fear what is happening."

There may be valid reason to be concerned, though, as drones have been used in high-profile attacks in conflict elsewhere. 

And Russia's long border and sprawling geography presents defensive challenges.

Peter A. Wilson, a senior defence analyst at the RAND Corporation think-tank, said Russia has tools to defend itself, but they can't be deployed in all locations at the same time.

He said "the real threat" may lie in the possibility of a swarming attack, in which a large number of drones are used in a combined offensive — a scenario Russian war bloggers have pointed to in the wake of the recent incidents.

Hard to gauge public view

What people in Russia are concluding from what they are being told about the drones and other events is hard to say — as a true picture of public opinion may be very hard to gauge from outside of the country.

"The question of how are people actually reacting on the ground to all of this and what are they thinking, I don't think that we can tell that from what the Kremlin is saying," said Maya Vinokour, an assistant professor in the Department of Russian and Slavic Studies at New York University.

Ignatov, of the International Crisis Group, said he's mostly seen pundits reacting to the spate of drone sightings — one of whom claimed a drone had flown near his dacha, or country home.

At this point, Ignatov believes the drone reports may be painful for Russian authorities in terms of their public image, perhaps demonstrating "the situation is worse than it is in the official statements."

For Morozova, who's experienced the war up close, the images that some Russians may be shown about drones do not match the degree of devastation that many Ukrainians have seen as missiles have struck their cities.

"If you could see the damage done to my city — in particular, what I've seen — it is so minute, as compared to a couple of drones that fell somewhere, not harming anyone," she said.