No confidence? Spain's PM faces uphill battle to govern

After dark, young Spaniards sit cross-legged in the grass in Madrid's Buen Retiro Park, clapping and singing along to music blaring from someone's mobile phone. It's a love song to their city. "Madrid, Madrid…" they sing and sway, as summertime's 40-degree heat finally starts to wane.

But when a foreign reporter walks up, asking about politics, the real world comes crashing in.

"We've reached the point where we don't care," says Sonya Frizzi, a college student, as she turns down the music. "We don't trust any politicians anymore!" 

All her friends nod in agreement. They're frustrated, too.

• Spain election: Conservatives fail to win majority, cannot yet form government
• Spanish vote: Conservatives returned, but vulnerable

"People are fed up! We voted twice, but our politicians can't compromise," says another student, Mergelina Gomez. "And now we might have to vote again? It's ridiculous!"

Political deadlock

Spain has had no elected government since Dec. 20, 2015. It's been nearly a year since any legislation has passed. Two rounds of elections — on Dec. 20 and again on June 26, 2016 — failed to deliver a real mandate to any party. So, Spain's political parties have spent more than eight months negotiating, leaving only a caretaker government in place, with little power to enact any policies.

The caretaker prime minister, Mariano Rajoy of the conservative Popular Party (PP), called for a confidence debate and vote in parliament this week. He failed the first vote, and if he fails a second and final vote Friday night, there will likely be yet another election.

Spain's constitution lays out a timeline for elections in these cases. A so-called investiture debate is held prior to a confidence vote.

If Rajoy wins, he officially becomes the country's prime minister. 

If he loses the vote, he could still hold another round of negotiations, hoping that regional elections in two Spanish provinces in late September might change smaller parties' refusal to support him. Otherwise, Rajoy has already agreed to schedule another election, which would fall on Christmas Day.

"Political columnists have had to be writing political columns during all these nine months, and we're just going nuts! I mean, it's like, we don't even know what to say anymore!" says Gabriela Bustelo, columnist for the Spanish web magazine Voz Pópuli.

Bustelo is not the only political commentator who believes that Rajoy had a Dec. 25 possible election date in mind when he called for the investiture debate in parliament this week. She says it's part of his strategy to convince rival parties to support him — or else.

"Rajoy is playing this game. His strategy is to pressure the opposition Socialists with this bizarre election date," she says. "So that the Socialist leader will be considered the culprit, the one to blame, for elections being held on Dec. 25 in this very Catholic country."

So far, the opposition Socialist Party, or PSOE, shows no signs of backing down. Its members voted Wednesday against Rajoy's efforts to form a government. If they were to agree to abstain in a second confidence vote Friday, Rajoy could possibly form a minority government, with support from a small centrist party, Ciudadanos, or Citizens, and some other tiny factions. But it's unclear what mandate or real power that government would have. Fresh elections could be inevitable before long.

The Socialist Party came in second, behind Rajoy's PP, in both the June and December elections. Its leader, Pedro Sanchez, has criticized Rajoy for corruption allegations that have long dogged his party, and for harsh austerity measures implemented after the 2008 economic crisis.

The economic argument

Rajoy has argued that he deserves credit for pulling Spain out of an economic crisis. Under his leadership, Spain received a €100 billion ($146 billion) bank bailout from Europe in 2012 but avoided a larger sovereign bailout, like those given to Greece, Portugal and Ireland.

"I saved this country from disaster and situated us at the top of Europe in terms of economic growth," Rajoy told parliament at the start of his investiture debate this week. But his favourability rating remains the lowest of any sitting prime minister in recent history.

Ever since democracy began in Spain in the late 1970s, after the death of the fascist dictator General Francisco Franco, the right and left have mostly alternated power, with support from some small regional parties. Spain has had no grand coalitions between the big main parties, like Germany often does. Compromise is notoriously difficult here; the right and left fought the Spanish Civil War in the 1930s and still haven't quite gotten over it. Real hatred remains on both sides.

New parties in the mix

To complicate things even more, two new political parties have emerged — Podemos on the left and Ciudadanos at the center-right — to challenge the two main parties. Since Dec. 20, parliament has been roughly split four ways. That's never happened before.

The rise of these two new parties is really a consequence of the economic crisis. It's brought to the surface a lot of disaffection with the established political elites.- Federico Santi, Eurasia Group

"The rise of these two new parties is really a consequence of the economic crisis. It's brought to the surface a lot of disaffection with the established political elites," says Federico Santi, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a London consulting firm that specializes in political risk.

"When you look at other countries that are more used to this — Germany or Italy, where coalition politics is really the norm — it took decades to get to that point. Whereas in Spain, this is really new. So, it's understandable that politicians would be cautious. It's the first time they're forced to make these difficult choices."

While Spanish politicians have been negotiating for nearly nine months, the country has gone without a government. Public investment in Spain's infrastructure is on hold. So is the national budget. Some Spanish embassies are left without ambassadors. 

But the economy is growing. And that's providing no shortage of material for Spanish cynics and satirists. This country may be better off, they say, if the politicians just stay home.