PM Modi has been humbled by India's election results. What's next?
A surging opposition and voters disgruntled over the economy cost the ruling BJP its outright majority
The swearing-in ceremony on Sunday for India's leader was grand. Scores of flowers adorned the stage of New Delhi's presidential palace, and thousands of guests were in attendance.
But a more muted Prime Minister Narendra Modi took the oath of office, promising to govern with "true faith and allegiance to the Constitution of India," after an election that saw his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lose more than 60 seats.
A flurry of editorials in India's newspapers heralded his reduced mandate as a win for democracy, with one calling it a "rebirth of the 'idea of India.'" Another column said it signified the end of "a decade marked by the 'supremo syndrome.'"
"The people of India have not only elected the government this time; they have also elected the opposition they wanted," said Neerja Chowdhury, a Delhi-based political analyst and author of the book How Prime Ministers Decide.
"They've reined in the government … and provided for a strong and vibrant opposition to keep them in check."
The results, seen by many as a rebuke from voters, have wiped away Modi's previously commanding majority, leaving him at the mercy of his political allies. Amid a strong showing from an opposition alliance and BJP losses in key regions, the once-dominant leader will now have to learn to negotiate in a delicate coalition government.
Hard bargaining after the vote
The prime minister is now highly dependent on two parties that hold 28 seats between them. Although they are currently political bedfellows, the leader of one of those parties, Chandrababu Naidu, has in the past been withering about Modi's treatment of India's Muslim minority, calling him a "hardcore terrorist."
There was hard bargaining in the days after the vote and before Modi's swearing-in, with the new kingmaker parties demanding perks, like more funding for their states, to remain on side with the alliance.
But they don't have full power. Modi's newly confirmed cabinet has many familiar faces, with the BJP holding onto key portfolios such as finance, home affairs, defence and foreign affairs. His allies received only five out of 30 cabinet posts.
It's a sign that Modi is still calling the shots, according to Chowdhury.
"The signal he's given is of continuity, of political stability," she said. "He's trying to show he is very much in control of the situation."
And that was a solid first move in Modi's new political chess game, according to Yamini Aiyar, former president of the Centre for Policy Research, a Delhi-based public policy think-tank.
"Total control is what he wants to project, and I think he's been able to achieve that," Aiyar said, even though it's only the beginning for a politician unaccustomed to compromise.
"We have continuity on the one hand, and we still have a certain amount of bargaining that's going on," she said.
Conciliatory noises
Meanwhile, the INDIA opposition alliance, led by the Indian National Congress, had a strong result in the election, after initially being written off by many analysts as weak and disjointed. It entered the election campaign as the clear underdog, but gained traction as the six-week vote dragged on. It ultimately won 232 seats, with the Congress Party doubling its previous tally.
The BJP lost in key areas, including heavily in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state and the heartland of Modi's Hindu nationalist base.
The most symbolic blow to the party was a loss in the constituency that includes Ayodhya, the city where earlier this year Modi had inaugurated with much pomp a Hindu temple devoted to the deity Ram, built where a destroyed mosque once stood.
Modi's party also lost in several ridings where he had made anti-Muslim remarks during the heated election campaign.
Chowdhury sees signs that the seasoned politician has absorbed the message, presenting himself in recent days as more of a low-key administrator steering a coalition, instead of a leader with unfettered power.
Modi told members of his coalition last Friday that "to run a government, a majority is necessary. But to run the nation, a consensus is necessary."
"He's been making conciliatory noises," Chowdhury said. Like most politicians, Modi is pragmatic about holding onto power, she said.
"I think the contentious issues will probably get put on the back burner, at least for the time being," the long-time political analyst said, such as the BJP's wish for a uniform civil code, which would have eliminated unique civil laws for different religious communities.
India's religious minorities feared that such a code would chip away at their freedom and paint some communities as regressive.
Before Modi and his BJP were elected to office in 2014 with a significant majority, India had long been ruled by coalition governments, so the new political reality is somewhat of a return to the norm.
But Modi, who is serving a rare third term, has never ruled without a commanding majority, and much of his persona is based on a strongman image.
Challenges ahead for INDIA alliance
While Modi is focusing on consolidating his coalition, the INDIA opposition alliance also has challenges ahead.
Aiyar said the opposition parties were able to tap into voter anxiety over eroding democratic norms in India, and the fact that there was not a level playing field, with two of Modi's opponents jailed on corruption charges on the eve of the election and the Congress Party's bank accounts frozen.
When Rahul Gandhi, the leading face of the Congress Party, spoke last week once the election results were clear, he said the opposition's resurgence came in part because his party respected its regional allies.
"We fought as one," he told the assembled crowd. But whether they'll continue to do so is another issue.
"The first challenge is going to be to hold it together," Aiyar said, since the alliance is mainly made up of regional parties with specific interests.
For Gandhi, the leading face of the opposition, it's an opportunity to finally take charge and emerge as a legitimate leader, after years of derision while his once-dominant party was in the political wilderness.
The next test, for both alliances, is upcoming state elections in key areas like Haryana, in the north, and Maharashtra — both states where the BJP lost significant ground in the general election.
Chowdhury said the open question is whether the Modi brand has been permanently dented.
"Mr. Modi would like to prove his skeptics wrong," she said. "Let's see how he does."
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
