For Israeli leaders, saying yes to ceasefire may mean acknowledging they've lost the war
Israel’s Netanyahu and Hamas’s Sinwar are survivors — agreeing to ceasefire could make one of them a casualty
As U.S. President Joe Biden once again dispatched his top negotiators to cajole Israel and Hamas into accepting an agreement to end their war, weary civilians in Gaza expressed cautious hope the two sides would finally find the elusive formula to stop the fighting.
"They have to agree this time," said Abdul Karim Al Qarawi.
The 34-year-old was one of several people interviewed by a freelance journalist working for CBC News in Deir el Balah, where hundreds of thousands of people have ended up after fleeing Rafah and other cities in Gaza to try to escape Israeli attacks.
"People are exhausted," said Al Qarawi. "I think that for the Palestinian side, it is in their best interest to agree to this proposal, because of the destruction and what has happened in Gaza."
The UN says it could take 80 years to rebuild all of the homes in Gaza that have been obliterated by Israeli ground and air attacks since Oct. 7. The territory's health-care system has been decimated, and schools, universities and other Palestinian civic institutions lie in ruins.
On Wednesday, UN agencies said that if the war does not end, by mid-July, more than a million people in Gaza could experience starvation of the highest level.
Still, there remains grave concern among those in Gaza about whether Israel's government — and especially Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — can be trusted to live up to the terms of any deal Hamas agrees to.
"[Israel] could conclude this agreement and then there could be political treason," said Muhammad Abu Mutaybeq, 30, suggesting the Israeli government may be trying to trick Hamas into releasing the hostages, with no intention of following the rest of the agreement.
The proposal endorsed by the White House calls for the war to stop while Hamas returns Israeli hostages and Israel releases Palestinian detainees. But the pause would not become permanent until further negotiations led to a complete end to the fighting during a second phase of the deal.
U.S. 'has to guarantee the ceasefire'
Many Palestinians fear once Israel has secured the release of the hostages, its military will resume its assault on Gaza.
"The American side has to guarantee the ceasefire," said Muhammad Nofal, 45, insisting it will require intervention from Western nations and Arab states to ensure any deal holds.
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The challenges and fears expressed by those in Gaza are echoed by analysts who've examined the dynamic between Netanyahu and Hamas's war leader Yahya Sinwar, each of whom have vested interests in seeing the Biden ceasefire push fail.
"For Netanyahu, declaring the end of the war without eliminating Hamas means Israel lost the war — and especially that he lost the war," said Alon Liel, a former top Israeli diplomat who has served under multiple Israeli prime ministers.
"For Sinwar, not getting [a permanent ceasefire] means he will release the hostages, and then he will be killed afterward."
When Biden gave his surprise news conference last Friday announcing the proposal, it was billed as an Israeli initiative. Liel says a key caveat is that the initiative was only approved by Israel's war cabinet, not the full cabinet, which includes members of far-right parties who control the balance of power in Israel's Parliament.
Without their support, Netanyahu's government would fall.
Their leaders, such as Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, want Israel to expand the war. He has called for Jewish settlers to resettle Gaza, declaring that "voluntary emigration" of Palestinians from Gaza should be encouraged.
Nonetheless, Biden, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the leaders of G7 countries and many Arab states have all invested heavily in diplomatic efforts to get both Israel and Hamas to accept the terms.
'Face-saving' statements
On Wednesday, Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh issued the militant group's latest reply, saying it would deal "seriously and positively" with any ceasefire agreement that is based on a total halt of the war.
At the same time, Israel's government has also walked back an important aspect of the deal presented by Biden, with Defence Minister Yoav Gallant affirming Israel will not halt attacks on Gaza during negotiations over the release of hostages and prisoners.
That would suggest major differences on the timing of the start of a ceasefire remain. But the fact neither side has yet to explicitly say no to the deal has kept hopes alive.
"Each side is trying to find some face-saving way to move forward on the basis of this proposal," said Khaled Elgindy, director of Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli affairs at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C. "It's very precarious."
Israel's government is facing immense pressure, both domestically and internationally, to stop the fighting. Of the roughly 120 remaining Israelis and other nationals captured by Hamas on Oct. 7, one-third are now thought to be dead, having either been killed by Hamas or in Israeli attacks.
Protests to end the war and bring the surviving hostages home have grown larger and opinion poll after opinion poll suggests a majority of Israelis want hostilities stopped.
With November elections looming in the United States, the Biden administration appears desperate to change the message from war to peace and demonstrate a badly needed foreign policy success.
What is victory?
By clinging to the rhetoric of what Netanyahu constantly refers to as "total victory" — meaning the destruction of Hamas's governing and military capabilities — Israel has adopted an unachievable goal, says Elgindy, and it's one the U.S. is attempting to pull him back from with the ceasefire initiative.
On the other hand, despite more than 36,000 Palestinian deaths in Gaza and the fact that the Israeli attacks have substantially degraded Hamas's military capabilities, Elgindy says the group likely doesn't feel any urgency to sign a deal Israel might renege on.
"All that Hamas needs to do to win is survive — and I think Hamas believes they are winning because of that," he said.
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The inability — or unwillingness — of the U.S. to put pressure on Israel to live up to any deal it signs creates further distrust, says Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the school of security studies at King's College London.
"America looks weak," he said. "Faith and trust in the United States as a mediator and as a guarantor that can actually coerce the Israelis into sticking to a deal they agree on ... has evaporated."
Krieg points out the U.S. warned Israel against attacking the southern city of Rafah, which was packed with civilians who had fled the fighting in other parts of Gaza, but Israel went ahead anyway.
The U.S. has also admitted Israel's military has probably used American-made heavy weapons in attacks on Gaza that have caused heavy civilian casualties, in violation of international law.
"Every single time there's a 'red line' created by Biden, Netanyahu breaches it and he gets away with it," said Krieg. "So there is very little trust that if [Israel] agree to a Phase 1 in this deal, they will get to a Phase 2."
Hezbollah's involvement
As diplomatic efforts over a ceasefire reach what may be their endgame, Hamas's ally in Lebanon, Iran-backed Hezbollah, has intensified attacks on Israeli positions across the border, possibly to apply more pressure on Israel to make concessions on Gaza.
More than 80,000 Israelis have been evacuated from their homes, and as long as the war lasts there's no foreseeable way any of them might be returning home, intensifying the political challenge for Netanyahu.
"Hezbollah said from the beginning that it's all based on Gaza — if Israel stops the Gaza operation, operations on the northern border will stop as well," said Krieg.
Still, the ferocity of the cross-border firefights is raising fears that both sides could be preparing to expand the conflict.
Ben Gvir and fellow Israeli far-right minister Bezalel Smotrich have both called for a full Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon.
Earlier this week, 10 Israelis were wounded and one soldier was killed in an attack on what Hezbollah says was an Israeli military position. Amid searing temperatures, many of the Hezbollah attacks have also created out-of-control forest fires in Israeli territory, adding to the damage.
Israel has responded with increased strikes of its own, hitting suspected Hezbollah leaders and militia positions. Netanyahu has warned "an extremely powerful response" is coming.
"I think this is a great concern," said Kreig. "Fully opening a second front in southern Lebanon would be a catastrophic mistake [for Israel], as it would be less manageable than managing Hamas."
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