By bruising and humiliating Hezbollah, is Israel playing 'Middle East roulette?'
At least 14 people have been killed, more than 450 injured by exploding walkie-talkies, pagers
The attack on Hezbollah's pagers and walkie-talkies has all the markings of a spy thriller: shadowy operatives, clever technology and international intrigue. Except this is real life, with severe injuries and civilian deaths, including children, over two days of widespread explosions in Lebanon and Syria.
And it has triggered calls for revenge, even among Lebanese who aren't supporters of the Iran-backed militia that's based in their country — the apparent target of the booby-trapped handhelds that have killed at least 14 and wounded more than 450.
"What happened is like an earthquake," said Beirut resident Ahmad Chamas. "It must be met with a decisive, destructive and shattering response, even if that leads to war."
That may be where all of this is headed as Hezbollah blames Israel for the attacks, with the two sides already trading volleys of rockets and airstrikes across the border almost daily.
Bruised and humiliated, Hezbollah sees reason to retaliate.
In a statement shortly after the explosions on Tuesday, it said Israel would get "its fair punishment." Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah may hint how and when that could happen in a speech set for Thursday afternoon.
Israel's government has not commented on the exploding pagers, neither confirming nor denying accusations that its powerful Mossad spy agency and stealthy military intelligence units were the masterminds in the attacks on Tuesday and Wednesday.
But with the agency's proven expertise of using similar weapons, and a motive, few in the Middle East believe it could be anyone else.
It was applauded by military analysts like Sarit Zehavi at Israel's Alma think-tank for "the confusion that it created among Hezbollah, the psychological damage."
But Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi accused Israel of pushing the Middle East to the brink of a regional war by orchestrating such a dangerous escalation.
A shift in the war
In recent days, Israel has made subduing Hezbollah an official war goal — right alongside winning the conflict with Hamas in Gaza — with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying Israel would "do what is necessary" to protect its north. Defence Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. officials this week that means "military action."
In the hours after the pager attacks, Israel moved its large 98th Division from fighting in Gaza to the northern border. The military vows to return more than 60,000 Israelis to their homes in border communities after a safety evacuation that has lasted since fighting began after Oct. 7.
"I have said it before," declared Netanyahu on Wednesday, "we will return the citizens of the north to their homes safely and that's exactly what we are going to do."
The mayor of Katzrin in the occupied Golan Heights hopes that means an Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
"We prepared for that," said Mayor Yehuda Dua. "And to tell you the truth, we want it to be. We have to destroy the Hezbollah. We have to kill them."
In Israel, the Jerusalem Post "congratulated" those behind the pager attacks against "the evil that is Hezbollah."
But many others worry it brings little relief, just more danger from all sides.
"At a time when Netanyahu was promising the Israeli public until not very long ago that we are just a small step from total victory over Hamas, now it seems we are closer than ever to a large-scale war with Hezbollah, too," wrote Haaretz columnist Amos Harel on Wednesday.
'Obvious that Israel did this'
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is working to avoid that, leading a so-far unsuccessful diplomatic push for a ceasefire in Gaza and de-escalation in the north.
"It's imperative that everyone avoid taking steps that could further escalate or spread the conflict," he warned in a Cairo news conference when asked about the pager attack, stressing that Washington was not consulted or told about it in advance.
"It's fairly obvious that Israel did this," Ben Rhodes, a former national security adviser to former president Barack Obama, told the BBC. "This is not what the U.S. wanted."
As a result, Israel may be playing "Middle East roulette," Beirut journalist and author Kim Ghattas said in a BBC interview. "You keep pushing further and further until you actually do ignite a regional war."
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