Donald Trump's nomination in U.S. presidential race could rest with wild card delegates

Donald Trump's campaign is confident he will get the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the Republican nomination before the July convention, but if they're wrong, his fate could rest with a group of wild card delegates from across the country.

Every state has its own rules for how delegates are selected and awarded in their primaries, and in most cases, the ones who go to the Cleveland convention will be "bound" to vote for a specified candidate on the first ballot.

But a handful of states will send roughly 200 "unbound" delegates who have no obligation to vote for Trump, Ted Cruz or John Kasich. They're essentially free agents, and if Trump falls short of clinching the nomination at the end of the primary season, well, these delegates could be kingmakers.

It's a lot of power for a very small chunk of delegates.- Jeff Brauer, political scientist

Louisiana, North Dakota, Colorado and Wyoming are among the states with unbound delegates, but the biggest lot of them, 54, will come from Pennsylvania. It holds its primary Tuesday along with Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware and Maryland.

In a scenario where Trump doesn't have a majority of pledged delegates at the start of the convention, the delegates from the Keystone State could push him past 1,237 on the first ballot — or not.  

"Those 54 delegates from Pennsylvania that are unbound could go in and actually decide the candidacy," said Jeff Brauer, a political science professor at Keystone College in the northeast part of the state. "It's a lot of power for a very small chunk of delegates."

Pennsylvania has one of the country's most unusual primaries on the Republican side. When voters get their ballots, they will choose the candidate they want for the nomination. The statewide winner will get 17 delegates. On that same ballot will be the names of those running to be one of the 54 unbound delegates.  

Mystery delegates

But, adding a twist to this already complicated plot, is the fact that the ballots will contain only the names of the delegates and no indication of whether they support Trump, Cruz, or Kasich.

The state has 18 congressional districts, and each one will elect three people to be unbound delegates. There are 162 people running to fill the 54 slots. In some districts, there will only be three names on the ballot; in others, there is competition, and voters will have to choose.

Pennsylvania's quirky system means it's entirely possible a Trump fan could pick three people who are actually Cruz or Kasich supporters.

Some delegate candidates are saying loud and clear whom they support, but there are others who are truly unaffiliated.

'If Cleveland is a contested convention, Pennsylvania is going to be at the centre of every discussion, every negotiation.- Charlie Gerow, mystery delegate

"I'm one of the mystery delegates," said Charlie Gerow, who is on the ballot in Pennsylvania's fourth district. Gerow, a longtime GOP activist, was Carly Fiorina's national campaign co-chairman before she withdrew from the race.

Gerow, who is up against 14 people, said those pledging to support a certain candidate have to be taken with a grain of salt because there is no guarantee they will follow through in Cleveland.

"If Cleveland is a contested convention, Pennsylvania is going to be at the centre of every discussion, every negotiation, every scenario that you could possibly imagine," he said.

Some delegate candidates say they will support whichever candidate wins the statewide vote in their district. That could bode well for Trump, who is leading in the polls, but Kasich, who grew up in Pennsylvania, has strength in certain districts.

Wait and see approach

Other delegate candidates, like Mike DeVanney, want to see how the rest of the primary season plays out.

The Pittsburgh resident, who used to work on Marco Rubio's campaign before the Florida senator dropped out, is "firmly uncommitted."

"I'm going to weigh the results that happen in Pennsylvania, but I'm also going to be monitoring the race between here and July," he said in an interview.

"I feel there is a duty as an independently elected delegate to not only use what happens in our state but to also use our own judgment and consultation with others to help nominate the candidate who, ultimately, can win," said DeVanney.

What Pennsylvania's unique delegate system means for the campaigns of the three remaining candidates in the Republican race is that they need to have serious ground games. Organization is key in this state. To succeed, candidates need to get in early, identify supporters and recruit them to run as delegates and get on the ballot, which would have required collecting signatures of registered Republicans months ago.

At this stage in the race, they should have their volunteers making phone calls and going door-to-door telling voters who their delegate candidates are so they can recognize them on the ballot come Tuesday. On voting day, well-organized campaigns will have workers outside polling stations handing out flyers with their delegates' names.

Ground game crucial

Cruz is known for having a strong ground game. Trump is not, but he's overhauled his campaign staff in recent weeks to help his campaign team be more strategic at winning over delegates in complicated states like Pennsylvania. With a total of 71 delegates at stake, Pennsylvania is the jackpot of the states voting Tuesday, and in a race this tight, every delegate counts.

"They are playing a little bit of catch-up," DeVanney said of Trump's campaign.

Gerow agreed and noted the candidates are only now ramping up their Pennsylvania campaigns since so much of their focus had been on the New York contest, which finished April 19.

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"They are literally trying to put together significant ground games in a week's time, and that is virtually impossible to do," he said.

Brauer, of Keystone College, said Pennsylvania will be a good test for Trump's ground game. He's hired some experienced campaign operatives, but, Brauer wondered, "Is it going to be too little too late?"

Whoever wins the delegate slots on Tuesday will also be left wondering whether their votes will matter or not in July. That question will be answered in the coming weeks as Trump continues his quest for the magic 1,237 number and Kasich and Cruz try to block him.