How coronavirus is colouring the U.S. presidential campaign

Coronavirus is already colouring the U.S. election campaign, with Democrats convinced President Donald Trump's muddled response to the outbreak leaves him and down-ballot Republicans vulnerable over the burgeoning health crisis, his competency and — potentially most damaging — the staggering economy.

Republicans are fighting back by accusing Democrats of politicizing the fight against the virus and COVID-19, the sometimes deadly disease it causes. But mostly, a nervous Republican Party is hoping administration actions will reverse the stock market's nosedive, avert a recession and overcome the coronavirus in just a few months.

That could allow time to prevent the problems from becoming Trump's Hurricane Katrina and defining November's election battles for the White House and Congress. Then-president George W. Bush was harshly criticized for his administration's belated handling of the deadly 2005 storm, which battered New Orleans, damaged his presidency and contributed to the Republicans' loss of House control the following year.

"The economy has been his whole schtick," said former Rep. Tom Davis, a Republican from Vermont, who once headed the House Republicans' campaign committee. "If the market tanks and the economy goes down, I think Trump's whole reason for being in office goes away."

"The way you respond to crises can be make-or-break moments for elected officials," said Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster.

People in both parties say a recession and a rampant disease outbreak would cripple Trump's re-election and Republican efforts to capture House control and defend their Senate majority. That's an edge Democrats are primed to exploit.

"Every elected @GOP official owns this moment," Rep. Sean Casten, a Democrat from Wisconsin, tweeted this week after Trump delivered a prime time national address that erroneously described several steps he's taking to try containing the virus. "They elected him. They coddled him. They cowered before him."

Democrats' first ads on the theme have only started trickling out. Yet they point to GOP soft spots Democrats detect and the emotional appeals they'll make.

Before exiting the Democratic presidential race this month, Mike Bloomberg ran two ads that implicitly challenged Trump's ability to manage the crisis by citing his own efforts as New York City mayor right after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. "Trust is essential," Bloomberg said.

The Democratic-backed group Protect Our Care began airing a spot this week in Montana asserting that the state's Republican senator, Steve Daines, "doesn't worry" about families' health concerns including coronavirus. It depicts a concerned mom hovering over her daughter, who lies bedridden in a hospital.

Daines, who faces a competitive reelection race this November, has favoured repealing former President Barack Obama's health-care law but there's no evidence he is unconcerned about coronavirus. Jesse Hunt, spokesperson for the Senate GOP's campaign committee, said Democrats are running "disgusting attack ads that politicize a disease that knows no party."

Short of campaign ads, both sides have used press releases and emails to duel over the virus.

Christy Smith, a Democrat battling for an open House seat from Los Angeles, emailed supporters accusing Republicans of "legislative malpractice" for blocking a Democratic bill addressing the virus.

And an email from the Great America PAC, a group that supports Trump, says while Trump has been "working around the clock to keep Americans safe and healthy," he's been blamed by "the Left and Fake News media" for the outbreak.

Such emails are often used to generate lists of potential voters, volunteers and donors. Trump has repeatedly referred to criticisms of his administration's coronavirus performance as a "hoax."

Stocks 'will come roaring back' by mid-summer

Republicans say there is still time for Trump to tame the coronavirus and the economy and consign them to background noise before Election Day.

"If we do this right, in the mid-summer the economy and stocks will come roaring back," said Rep. Steve Stivers of Ohio, a recent chairman of his party's House political arm.

A quick turnabout will be crucial for Trump, whose presidency has featured frequent high-profile clashes that often drown each other out. That includes his House impeachment and his acquittal just five weeks ago by the Senate, which have already been overshadowed by the latest crisis.

Above all issues, a feeble economy can spell an incumbent president's downfall, and things currently look grim. Plummeting financial markets, withering 401k accounts, growing layoffs, slowed consumer spending and travel and the shutdown of sports leagues and entertainment venues are hardly the stuff that lures voters.

Trump declared the coronavirus pandemic a national emergency Friday, saying that would provide $50 billion US to state and local governments for the outbreak. The Dow Jones average rose over 1,900 points Friday but was still in bear market territory, down over 20 per cent from its all-time last month.

But in an example of his tendency to downplay the virus and his defensiveness about the administration's slow-footed reaction to it, he said, "I don't take responsibility at all" for the plodding roll-out of testing in the U.S.

Trump does a 'fly by the seat of his pants,' says Democrat

That left the wounded economy and the virus irresistible targets for Democrats, who are tying them to criticism of Trump as incompetent.

"You wouldn't have had a massive fluctuation in the stock market this week if he wasn't really disturbing the confidence of investors," said Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a Democrat from Florida, a former Democratic Party chair. She said Trump's "fly by the seat of his pants, cover his own tuchus approach does not inspire confidence."

"President Trump has taken kind of malicious pride in asserting that he alone can make things happen," said Rep. Peter Welch a Democrat from Vermont.. "And he's run into his match with a coronavirus that simply doesn't respond to his tweets and insults."

Democrats on the presidential campaign trail have struck similar themes.

Joe Biden said "a pervasive lack of trust in this president" had hindered the response to virus, compounded by Trump's leaving the country "woefully unprepared." Biden's remaining rival, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, said the administration's "incompetence and recklessness have threatened the lives of many, many people."

Still, Republicans are watching to see if Democrats overstep in converting a virus that has killed thousands around the world into a political weapon.

The risk for Democrats is if they "look like they are cheering for a worsening of a very serious situation," said Ayres, the GOP pollster.