Vice-presidents rarely impact voting behaviour, but Kamala Harris could be an exception

A rambling Ronald Reagan performance in the first presidential debate in 1984 raised more than a few eyebrows in the press and among Republican pollsters.

"Reagan debate performance invites open speculation on his ability to serve," a Wall Street Journal headline read. The Milwaukee Journal, in an editorial 39 years ahead of Axios, wrote then, "White House aides, by limiting media access to Reagan, reduced the opportunity for presidential gaffes."

What's old is new again. On Friday, Axios wondered if what it characterized as a circumscribed daily White House schedule was related to Joe Biden's age, adding that "the White House rarely puts Biden in improvisational settings."

Biden, already the oldest U.S. president on record, announced his bid for re-election this week. He would be 86 were he to fully serve out two terms, and his campaign launch has prompted a wave of analyses on whether age will be a factor for voters, including on these pages.

Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations who is running for president, brought up the issue of Biden's age rather impolitically this week.

"The idea that [Biden] would make it until 86 years old is not something that I think is likely," Haley said in an interview with Fox News on Wednesday.

She has previously raised the highly unlikely prospect of a mental competency test for presidential candidates, clearly thinking of both Biden and Republican candidate and ex-president Donald Trump, who will be 77 next month. Reagan, for the record, was 73 during the aforementioned debate and went on to drub Democrat Walter Mondale in the 1984 vote.

Mental acuity an issue on Capitol Hill

Historically, just eight of 45 presidents have died in office, and not since 1963. That was when John F. Kennedy was assassinated, the fourth president to die as a result of gun violence.

The last of the four who died of health-related reasons was Franklin Roosevelt in 1945. Roosevelt had a paralytic illness and a host of other health issues.

WATCH | On age, Republicans highlight Biden gaffes, he points to accomplishments: 

Is Joe Biden too old to run for re-election? | About That

2 years ago

Duration 9:08

U.S. President Joe Biden says he plans to run for re-election in 2024. At 80 years old, he is the oldest serving president in U.S. history. Andrew Chang explores why Biden's age has become a concern, and what he, his critics, and his supporters, all say about it.

While Biden has exceeded the life expectancy for an average American male, the White House physician gave him a clean bill of health earlier this year. Biden's most serious brush with death actually occurred in his mid-40s, when he twice underwent brain surgery for aneurysms.

The issue of age and mental acuity has been a hot topic in Washington of late as Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, 89, has been absent for months. The absence "comes as her health and memory has noticeably declined in recent years," per an Associated Press report, and has meant that some of Biden's judicial picks have stalled on the committee on which she serves.

On the Republican side, Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, 81, suffered a concussion and a rib injury in a fall that required him to be away from D.C. for six weeks.

Will Harris help decide at 'the margins'?

Biden's age and his day job could see Vice-President Kamala Harris called on to campaign extensively in 2024, while Republicans can be expected to raise alarm at the prospect of a potential Harris presidency that is decided by Father Time, not voters. The Feinstein example illustrates that it's not necessarily mortality that could theoretically put Harris in the Oval Office.

"If you vote for Joe Biden, you really are counting on a President Harris," Haley said on Fox News.

Biden was largely spared the rigours of a traditional campaign in 2020 because a pandemic was declared in March of that year. He relied on a series of virtual summits and addresses.

In a polarized American political scene coming off two straight razor-thin presidential elections, one which presaged a riot at the Capitol, the vice-president factor can't be discounted out of hand this time.

"Vice-presidential candidates, if they're going to make a difference, they're going to make it at the margin," Joel Goldstein, a historian of the vice-presidency, told AP. "But if you look at our recent history, a lot of our presidential elections have been decided at the margins."

'She's not a good messenger'

The last vice-presidential candidate believed to have really impacted voting behaviour was Sarah Palin, chosen in 2008 by Republican nominee John McCain.

According to one analysis, there was theoretical "support for the proposition that a running mate is an important short-term force affecting voter behaviour." But, said Jonathan Knuckey in that analysis published in 2012 in Political Research Quarterly, there was evidence to suggest that "Palin may have contributed to a loss of support among swing voters."

It's conceivable a similar effect could play out in 2024 as Harris has polled worse than Biden. In an AP-National Opinion Research Center poll conducted in January, 43 per cent of U.S. adults had a favourable opinion of Biden, and 36 per cent said the same about Harris. Among Democrats, Biden was at 78 per cent and Harris was at 67 per cent, though 10 per cent said they didn't know enough about Harris to have an opinion.

Harris served just one term as a U.S. senator after a long career in California politics, and former White House chief of Staff Ron Klain said this week in a podcast he believes she still isn't a fully known quantity for many Americans.

Erin Perrine, a spokesperson for a super political action committee (known as a super PAC) supporting Florida governor Ron DeSantis, scoffed at the idea that Harris would be helpful to Biden's re-election chances.

"She's not a good messenger," Perrine told AP. "She is prone to not only stepping on the message, but putting out word salad answers, and then when she gets uncomfortable, getting into a laughing fit."

While Republican attacks on Harris have focused on optics and not her many trips to see foreign leaders, Democrats are pointing to her efforts after last year's seismic Supreme Court ruling gave several states the impetus to roll back or outlaw abortion access. In addition, access to some abortion medication is now before the courts.

Harris has hosted White House summits on reproductive rights, and just this week spoke at Howard University in Washington, D.C., on the topic of women's health, which Democrats believe will help mobilize their base in 2024.

WATCH | Biden adamant he's ready and able to run another campaign:

Biden addresses his age as he runs for re-election

2 years ago

Duration 0:51

U.S. President Joe Biden says he 'took a hard look' before deciding to run for re-election at age 80, but that he will let the voters decide whether he has what it takes.

At the risk of stating the obvious, added to the mix is the fact that Harris is also the first Black and Asian vice-president, with Indian heritage.

Cornell Belcher, a Democratic pollster, said Harris is "probably better positioned to connect with, in an authentic way, that critical emerging cohort of the American electorate that we are absolutely positively dependent on to win a majority."

Of course, right now Harris is being assessed in a vacuum. Even if it were Trump to emerge as the Republican presidential nominee, his former VP Mike Pence has essentially testified against him in court, so there will be a new candidate with their own accomplishments and vulnerabilities up for comparison and debate with Harris.