Benjamin Netanyahu's victory in Israel and the challenge of mending international relations

With his surprising election victory, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must be taking some satisfaction in the failure of the "worldwide" conspiracy, as he called it, to remove him from power.

Conspiracy or not, some world leaders, most notably U.S. President Barack Obama, with whom Netanyahu has repeatedly clashed, would have shed few tears had the prime minister gone down to defeat. 

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But now, an emboldened Netanyahu faces the challenge of trying to repair his frayed relationships with the international community while still constrained by the domestic political realities of holding together a right-wing shaky coalition.

"In a lot of ways, this election was a referendum on Netanyahu, and he succeeded," said Dalia Dassa Kaye, director of the Center for Middle East Public Policy and a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. "And he may not feel the immediate need to extend an olive branch, especially not to the Obama administration."

His relations with his most important allies, the European Union and U.S., were already strained prior to the election over issues like settlement construction in the West Bank and, with the White House in particular, his vocal criticism and speech to Congress denouncing a potential U.S.-Iranian nuclear deal.

Attempt to 'walk things back'

His rhetoric about Arab voters and his renunciation of a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians just days before the election put further strain on already cool international relations.

"I think in terms of the rhetoric, we’re likely to see some attempt by Netanyahu to try and walk things back a bit," Kaye said. "The question is going to be is that going to be enough to repair relations."

Ultimately, continuing with that type of rhetoric and posture will lead to crises with the U.S. and Europe and could have tangible effects for Israel, especially in terms of trade relationships, Kaye said.

“The majority of Israelis will not welcome that, they don’t welcome friction with the U.S. in particular and especially with Europe on trade relations,” she said. “But again the question is whether the damage is done.”

Already, immediately after the election, there appeared to be some softening of Netanyahu's renunciation of a two-state solution.

“This is an election campaign. And you have to take with a grain of salt, if I may, statements given at the last moment when the polls are saying that you’re going to lose and he’s addressing a small group of people,” Israeli ambassador to Canada Rafael Barak told CBC’s Power & Politics. “He never said this all over his campaign.”

Netanyahu's comments, seen as a hard right turn in the final days of the campaign, were an appeal to the nationalistic segment of Israeli society, said Joel Migdal, professor of international studies at the University of Washington.

'Tremendous wave of love'

Now, as he cobbles together a coalition of right-wing parties, Netanyahu will have to continue to appeal to his base to keep ruling, meaning he is unlikely to make grand gestures to the international community.

"We're not going to see a tremendous wave of love for the rest of the world coming from him," Migdal said.  

"On the other hand, it’s really hard to be the ruler of a country which is increasingly isolated. So you’re going to see some moves by him to try and repair relationships, but it's constantly going to be constrained by that response to his base."

Those moves could include emphasizing the security intelligence and economic relations that Israel has with the U.S. and European countries, moving toward some of his traditional allies like Germany, he said.

But Netanyahu may put more of his focus on appeasing his domestic critics, who have complained about his lack of attention to socio-economic issues.

"That may be the more likely scenario than some attempt to warm up relations. Not sure there will be the will and not sure the response will be terribly enthusiastic," Kaye said.

While Netanyahu may be constrained by the coalition, it may also force him to use individuals who could de-escalate tensions. 

One of the so-called "kingmakers" of the Netanyahu coalition will be the centrist Kulanu Party, led by Moshe Kahlon. While Kahlon is expected to demand a cabinet position, most likely finance, there is some speculation that fellow Kahlon member Michael Oren, the former Israeli ambassador to the U.S., could play some role in improving international relations.

"I doubt he'll be given a very prominent role, because relations aren't particularly good between him and Bibi," said Mira Sucharov​, an associate professor of political science at Carleton University. "But if he is given some sort of behind the scene role, he may be able to play a role in smoothing relations."

Kaye added that symbolic actions like those may help. "But if policies don't change, especially on settlements, I find it hard to believe the trajectory of continued friction and crises would not continue."