In your province or territory, what industry emits the most CO2?

What industry is the biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions in your province or territory?

Federal government data released this week shows there's huge variation across the country, and some of it may surprise you.

• For example, ordinary households driving fossil fuel-powered vehicles were the top emitters of the greenhouse gases responsible for climate change in Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Quebec and Ontario in 2021, the year the estimates were from.

• The only province where the oil and gas industry was the top emitter was Alberta, where it accounted for more than half (51.2 per cent) of the province's emissions.

• Another oil-producing province, Saskatchewan, was one of three provinces — along with Nova Scotia and New Brunswick — where electric power generation, transmission and distribution were the biggest sources of carbon pollution, thanks largely to the continued use of coal.

• The mining industry was the top emitter in Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut.

• In British Columbia, it was pulp, paper and paperboard mills, and in Manitoba, it was crop and animal production.

Simon Dyer, deputy executive director of the Pembina Institute, a clean energy think-tank that has looked at the climate policy challenges across Canada, called it a "pretty nice reflection" of the dominant industries in different provinces.

"It does show that in terms of reducing emissions, there is no silver bullet," said Dyer, who is based in Edmonton. "Emissions come from every part of the economy."

He added that means specific policies to cut emissions in each sector are important at all levels of government — federal, provincial and municipal.

But he said in many cases, the technologies needed to cut those emissions — from EVs to renewable energy — are available. Meanwhile, this past year the federal government has proposed legislation to make the electricity grid even cleaner, cap oil and gas emissions and make electric vehicles more widely available.

The data released by Statistics Canada this week are greenhouse gas emissions estimates that specifically look at how emissions are related to different sectors of the economy. They're based on the United Nations System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, which is more targeted and less comprehensive than the National Inventory Report of greenhouse gas emissions submitted as part of Canada's global commitments under the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, which also includes things like changes in land use.

Emissions down as economy grows

Overall, across Canada, there was visible progress toward Canada's climate goals: greenhouse gas emissions have been dropping even as its economy grows. 

From 2009 to 2021, the economy grew an average two per cent per year, while industrial greenhouse gas emissions fell an average of 0.2 per cent per year, the federal report said.

"We are starting to turn the corner on reducing emissions," said Dyer. He noted that in the past, climate action was often framed as having a negative impact on economic development.

"But what you can see now is … that's clearly not the case," he said, crediting developments such as cheaper clean energy and electric vehicles. "We have the technologies that we need to make the emissions reductions we need to make."

A huge part of that was the electricity system's move away from coal – cutting the industry's emissions by 40.3 per cent even as the industry's GDP rose 12.2 per cent.

Dyer called that a "real success story."

Household greenhouse gas emissions fell across most of Canada between 2009 to 2021, most significantly in P.E.I. (–2.9 per cent), Northwest Territories (–1.8 per cent) and New Brunswick (–1.6 per cent). Dyer agrees that the early adoption of heat pumps in P.E.I. and New Brunswick likely played a role, and he sees electrification of heating starting to happen across the country. "I think that's going to be a real success story."

WATCH | Atlantic Canada leads country in green home heating transition:

Atlantic Canada leads country in green home heating transition

1 year ago

Duration 2:19

Electric and climate-friendly heat pumps are replacing oil tanks for home heating on the East Coast, likely thanks to provincial government incentives in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and P.E.I.

What provinces, territories need to do

While he was optimistic about the federal government's proposed legislation on clean electricity, oil and gas emissions and electric vehicles, Dyer said it's not enough, since the provinces have power over many other kinds of emissions and potential reductions. 

There are huge opportunities for other provinces to learn from places like B.C. and Quebec that have "rigorous [climate] plans and are taking this issue seriously," he added.

He credits those plans and policies for the huge growth in EVs in those provinces, and the lack of them for the long wait lists for EVs in other provinces, for example.

Meanwhile, he said Canadians need to hold Alberta and Saskatchewan accountable for their lack of progress, especially since they have been pushing back against the federal government's climate policy efforts, saying they step into provincial jurisdiction.

"If Alberta and Saskatchewan want to lead," he said, "that means actually, you know, setting targets and putting policies in place to reduce emissions."

He noted that Alberta doesn't have any target to reduce emissions by 2030. Meanwhile, it's responsible for close to 40 per cent of the country's emissions. "So that means Alberta is both the biggest challenge and the biggest part of the solution, right?"

Dyer and his colleagues are currently working with Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, B.C., on a new report looking at provincial and territorial climate plans and challenges across the country, which will be released in 2024.