Most countries miss UN climate plan deadline as fears over Trump effect on global diplomacy grow

Most of the world's nations have missed a UN deadline to set new climate targets as efforts to curb global warming come under pressure following U.S. President Donald Trump's election.

The UN still expects those targets to come in this year. As of the Feb. 10 deadline, only 10 out the 195 countries signed up to the Paris Agreement had submitted their new plans, which set out how they plan to cut emissions by 2035.

Canada has also not submitted its proposal yet, but Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault announced a new 2035 emissions-reduction target last year. His office told CBC News it plans to submit the target to the UN sometime this week.

The delays raise questions about where international diplomacy is headed, with the U.S. expected to continue pulling back on climate action. Trump is exiting the Paris Agreement, rolling back rules on clean energy and green technology and aligning his administration with pro-fossil fuel interests.

'Many countries are struggling'

Former U.S. president Joe Biden had submitted a new U.S. climate target in the last days of his administration, but Trump is expected to scrap that plan.

China, now the world's largest polluter, had not submitted a new plan by the deadline. Neither had the European Union or India.

Alex Rafalowicz, executive director of the Fossil Fuel Non-proliferation Treaty Initiative, says it's essential the new plans come in by September. That's so the UN can assess whether the plans are sufficiently more ambitious, which will then influence the negotiations at the global climate conference in Brazil in November.

But the delays are disappointing, he said, and point to issues on the global stage — especially on financing to help developing countries adopt green technologies.

"So many countries in the developing world have said clearly that they actually need more resources — to help them be able to do their climate action plans, to invest in the renewable energy that they might need, or the seawall defences that they might need, or the sustainable agricultural approaches or whatever it may be," Rafalowicz said in an interview with CBC News.

"And unfortunately, the agreement last year [at the climate conference hosted in Azerbaijan] did not give an indication that there was going to be sufficient finance available, and many countries are struggling."

New targets meant to increase climate ambition

The point of requiring new targets every five years is to slowly push countries to increase their climate ambition, as renewable energy sources like wind and solar become cheaper, green alternatives like electric cars become better and investments in clean technologies grow. 

The 2015 Paris climate accord commits nations to try to avoid global warming exceeding 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels. While action to date has fallen far short of the deep emissions cuts that would achieve this, it has improved significantly since the agreement was signed a decade ago.

Back then, the world was projected to hit 3.6 C of warming by 2100 based on climate and energy policies in place at the time. That's now down to 2.7 C because of climate policies enacted around the world as part of the Paris process. 

But the missed deadline also adds to concerns that climate action has fallen down government agendas. 

UN climate chief Simon Stiell said last week most countries have indicated they will still produce their plans this year.

"Countries are taking this extremely seriously, which isn't surprising given these plans will be key to how much of the $2-trillion [US] boom governments can secure," Stiell said, citing the amount invested globally in clean energy and infrastructure last year.

"So taking a bit more time to ensure these plans are first-rate makes sense."

U.K., Japan, Brazil among those with new plans

The U.K. and Brazil are among those that have submitted their new plans to the UN. The South American country is hosting this year's COP30 climate summit in the Amazon rainforest. Japan, like Canada, has announced a plan but hasn't yet submitted it.

The U.K. has been lauded for its latest plan, which plans steep emissions cuts to get the country to net-zero emissions as early as 2035. 

EU climate policy chief Wopke Hoekstra told Reuters last month the bloc's policymaking cycle did not line up with the UN deadline, but that Brussels would have its plan ready for the COP30 UN climate summit in November.

India has not yet finished the studies needed to design its climate plan, a government official told Reuters.

China will publish its climate plan "in due course," a foreign ministry spokesperson said on Monday.

A spokesperson for Indonesia's Environment Ministry said the ministry was awaiting instructions from the president's office on submitting its climate target.