What the Montreal byelection results mean for the parties, the PM and the next election

The defeat of the Liberal candidate in the Montreal riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun continues a streak of bad news for the governing Liberals, coming just four months after the party's unexpected loss in another supposedly safe seat in Toronto.

Bloc Québécois candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé beat the Liberals' Laura Palestini by 250 votes in the LaSalle-Émard-Verdun byelection Monday night. Voter turnout was a robust 40 per cent.

Here's what the results could mean for the main federal parties. 

The Liberals 

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and several cabinet ministers said Tuesday the party needs to reflect on how to engage with voters following the party's narrow defeat in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun.

Voters' frustration with the prime minister has grown since he took office nine years ago. Liberal MP Alexandra Mendès has said some of her constituents are "very adamant" he should no longer be at the helm of the party.

Innovation, Science and Industries Minister François-Philippe Champagne said Tuesday morning that Liberals need to "show humility," take stock of the results and work to gain voters' trust.

"The Bloc won't be able to block the Conservatives," Champagne said. "If we want to maintain what we achieved for Quebec and for the rest of the nation over the last few years, we need to make sure they understand we're the best option for them."

Dismissing the suggestion that Trudeau may not be the best person to lead the party into the next election, Champagne said the prime minister embodies the optimism the country needs in the coming months. 

"I think he's the best person to take us there," he said.

WATCH: Liberals lose key Montreal byelection: 

Trudeau under pressure after 2nd byelection loss

2 months ago

Duration 2:42

A byelection loss in the longtime Liberal stronghold of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun has put Prime Minister Justin Trudeau under pressure to defend his leadership as the government faces a potential non-confidence vote next week.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller, whose riding of Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs is close to LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, said he is "taking the loss quite personally" because he was confident the Liberals would win.

In June, Miller said the Liberals' defeat in Toronto St-Paul's shouldn't be minimized and "a lot of us have to step back, give our heads a shake, screw it on a little better. Stop the navel-gazing and get back on the horse and fight for Canadians."

The Bloc Québécois

Louis-Philippe Sauvé's surprise win brought the Bloc Québécois its thirty-third seat.

Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet told reporters Tuesday the results of the byelection "created a bridge" between his party and Montrealers.

The Bloc previously held only one riding on the island of Montreal, La Pointe-de-l'Île, a stronghold for the party.  

"Two months ago, the analysts would have told you it was impossible," Blanchet said at a news conference in Montreal. 

Blanchet said the win "allows us to speak directly to the English community to which I have been open for all my years in politics."

More than half (about 58 per cent) of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun residents are francophones, according to census data.

About a quarter of the riding's residents  — roughly 23 per cent — list English as their mother tongue. The LaSalle portion of the seat also has a sizeable Italian-Canadian community.

The New Democratic Party

Clinging to a single seat in Quebec, the New Democrats currently appear unable to revive their popularity in a province they swept more than a decade ago.

The NDP failed to break through in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun despite a candidate with name recognition — Craig Sauvé, a Montreal municipal councillor.

Sauvé, a prominent figure in the Sud-Ouest borough, finished in third.

WATCH | Craig Sauvé thanks NDP supporters in Montreal riding byelection: 

Craig Sauvé thanks NDP supporters in Montreal riding byelection

2 months ago

Duration 2:13

Ahead of final results in the Montreal byelection in the riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun Monday night, NDP candidate Craig Sauvé said his campaign was a dream and thanked his supporters.

His performance, and the fact that he was presented by the party as a star candidate, suggest the NDP has been struggling since ending its supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals on Sept 4.

Before the NDP managed to hang on to its seat in the Elmwood–Transcona byelection, former NDP MP Françoise Boivin questioned whether a loss in the riding would signal that leader Jagmeet Singh took too long to end the deal with the Liberals.

The Conservatives

For the Conservatives, the loss in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun was a missed opportunity to weaken the Liberals as they pressure other opposition parties to force what they're calling a "carbon tax election" this fall.

The Conservatives' candidate, business owner Louis Ialenti, took 11.6 per cent of votes in the Montreal byelection, placing him in fourth.

Despite polls suggesting the Conservatives are leading nationally, that momentum hasn't translated to Quebec, where they remain in third place.

Since the creation of the modern Conservative Party under Stephen Harper, the Tories have struggled to maintain double-digit seat numbers in Quebec and are competitive in five to 10 ridings in the province. 

The party won 10 Quebec seats in the 2021 election, mostly in the area around Quebec City.