With Trump looming, Pierre Poilievre tries to wrap himself in the flag
What if Canadians decide they're worried not just about tariffs, but populist politics?
Donald Trump now seems to loom over everything — almost as overwhelmingly as the giant Canadian flag that loomed behind Pierre Poilievre at his "Canada First" rally last weekend.
If not for Trump, it seems unlikely Poilievre would have been celebrating Flag Day so enthusiastically. For that matter, if not for Trump, it seems likely that this Flag Day — inaugurated in 1996 to mark the adoption of the red maple leaf as this country's national flag in 1965 — would have passed with little to no notice.
But the 29th annual Flag Day was said to be of particular importance to Poilievre. His speech was touted variously as a "shift" and a "rebranding." It was said to be "the pivotal moment of his career" and "one of the most important speeches" he had ever given.
One of Poilievre's tasks seemed to be simple reassurance — or catching up to the national discourse. Standing before that giant Canadian flag, the Conservative leader acknowledged the threat and the challenge posed by the new American regime and vowed to respond and fight if the United States targets this country's goods with tariffs.
"We will bear any burden and pay any price to protect the sovereignty and independence of our country," Poilievre said, borrowing from John F. Kennedy's inaugural address in 1961.
Poilievre has more fully embraced the slogan of "Canada First." But in the Conservative leader's own estimation, his broader message is unchanged.
"You know, the media is now saying that I should change my entire platform because of the tariff threat," Poilievre said, though that's perhaps not exactly what pundits have been saying.
"In fact, the Trump tariff threats have proven Conservatives right on everything."
As Poilievre put it in a tweet on Tuesday, "Everything Conservatives said BEFORE the Trump tariffs is even MORE correct now."
He fairly delighted in noting how the leading contenders for the Liberal leadership now stand closer to his pre-existing positions on issues like the carbon tax (they'd repeal it), the capital gains tax (they would cancel the government's planned changes) and pipeline construction (they're at least open to it).
"Imitation is the highest form of flattery," Poilievre said.
But he also reiterated his plan to cut government spending, reduce regulation and cut taxes — he now says it will be both the "biggest" and "most patriotic" tax cut in Canadian history.
What Poilievre left unsaid
But Poilievre's 60-minute speech was also notable for what he didn't say — specifically, the word "broken."
That "everything" about Canada is "broken" was previously a rallying cry for Poilievre's Conservatives. After Donald Trump suggested that he would impose tariffs on Canadian goods because of the movement of people and fentanyl across the Canada-U.S. border — an argument that belies the facts — Poilievre promoted the idea that the border was "broken."
"It's harder to talk about a broken Canada when there's a growing sense of patriotism," a Conservative source told Radio-Canada earlier this month.
That was not the only thing that went unsaid on Saturday.
Poilievre didn't mention his desire to defund the CBC or fire the governor of the Bank of Canada. He didn't remind listeners that he would ban his cabinet ministers from attending the annual conference of the World Economic Forum. Aside from a glancing allegation that Justin Trudeau's government had divided Canadians by "vaccine status," Poilievre did not explicitly reference the flag-waving freedom convoy that he cheered on almost exactly three years ago. And there was nothing about cryptocurrency.
But not all of Poilievre's edges were sanded off.
He accused the Liberals of promoting a "radical, borderless, woke ideology." He said he would ensure the Canadian military has a "warrior culture" not a "woke culture." He decried the "cancel culture" that has apparently desecrated the memory of John A. Macdonald. He repeated his intention to cut foreign aid.
The Liberals responded to Poilievre's speech with a video package that used the Conservative leader's comment about imitation and flattery as an excuse to compare some of Poilievre's edgier rhetoric with Trump's own views and behaviour.
This is hardly the first time the Liberals have tried to draw such comparisons. And previous attempts didn't prevent the Conservatives from building — at least until recently — a big lead in opinion polls.
Does Poilievre have a Trump problem?
But in an analysis posted before Poilievre's speech, David Coletto of Abacus Data posited that Poilievre has a Trump problem.
Trump is overwhelmingly unpopular in Canada — Abacus Data reported last week that 69 per cent of Canadians have a negative view of the American president, compared to just 18 per cent who have a positive view of him. But polling suggests that some Poilievre supporters don't dislike what they see when they look at Trump.
Among Conservative supporters, 31 per cent have a positive impression of Trump. And among those who say they have a positive impression of Poilievre, that number rises to 37 per cent.
"If Poilievre appears too cozy with Trump or refuses to distance himself from some of Trump's more divisive positions, he risks alienating a chunk of his precariously broadening coalition," Coletto wrote. "Conversely, if he firmly repudiates Trump, he might spark discontent among the hardcore pro-Trump wing of the Conservative movement."
Coletto estimates that there is slice of the Canadian electorate — about 12 per cent — who likes Poilievre, but dislikes Trump. And he suspects that group could be "especially sensitive to any indication that Canada's Conservative leader is ideologically close to the former U.S. president."
It's not hard to list the ways in which Poilievre and Trump are not alike. To pick two big ones: Poilievre is not running a nativist campaign against immigration, nor has he refused to acknowledge the results of democratic elections.
But it's also fair to say Poilievre is working with some of the same anti-establishment, us-vs.-them, populist forces that are most loudly evident in American politics.
On Saturday, Poilievre tried to make the case that he's ready to answer Trump's threats and that he has the right vision for what Canada should do in response to this world. But what if Canadians decide they're worried not just about tariffs, but about the populist style of politics?
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