Federal polls showing a rare, rapid shift — but unclear if numbers will hold

Recent federal polls have shown a dramatic shift in Canadians' voting preferences, but analysts say there is no guarantee it's a lasting trend.

CBC's Poll Tracker has clocked a massive Conservative lead for the better part of the last two years. But survey results from the past few weeks suggest that lead is quickly evaporating. 

An Ipsos poll conducted between Feb. 21 and 24 has the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives among decided voters — though the two-point spread falls well within the 3.8 per cent margin of error.

Still, it's the first time Ipsos has shown the Liberals in the lead in years, erasing a 26-point Conservative lead that the firm tracked six weeks ago.

"Right now, we have a steep curve in favour of the Liberals, the steepest I have seen in my years covering the polls in Canada," said Philippe Fournier, an analyst with 338Canada.com.

An Abacus Data poll conducted between Feb. 20 and 25 still has the Conservatives ahead by 12 points. But it also shows a fairly quick upswing for the Liberals — a nine-point jump from where the party was a month ago.

Fournier said the rapid gains the Liberals have made can be attributed to three factors: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing he would be stepping down, interest in the party's leadership race and the return of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Earlier this year, CBC's Poll Tracker suggested a Conservative victory was all but certain. While the tracker still calculates a Conservative win as the most likely outcome if an election were held today, it now shows a narrow window of opportunity for the Liberals to come out on top.

"It's a very dramatic shift and really not something you often see. You rarely even see it in election campaigns. So to see it outside of an election campaign it's pretty surprising," Éric Grenier, a polls analyst with The Writ who runs CBC's Poll Tracker, said.

Some polls have factored in the possibility of a new Liberal leader. A Leger survey conducted between Feb. 21 and 23 suggested that Liberal support with Trudeau still in charge has the Liberals trailing the Conservatives. But with the possibility of former central banker Mark Carney at the helm, the Liberals jump ahead of the Tories by two percentage points — though that still falls within the margin of error.

Grenier suggested that even the Liberal brand under Trudeau has regained some support due to Trump's tariff threats and talk of making Canada the 51st state.

"There is a rally around the flag effect I think taking place here. The Liberals are benefiting from Donald Trump's attacks on Canada … even if you still mentioned Justin Trudeau, the Liberals are doing far better than they've done in the last year and a half," he said.

While Liberals might be feeling reinvigorated by the latest numbers, the NDP's fortunes appear to be the opposite.

The rebound of the Liberals appears to be in part due to the waning favourability of Jagmeet Singh's New Democrats.

"It really has put the NDP in a tough place, because clearly the NDP is not making any gains … and so perhaps what we're seeing is strategic voting on steroids," Fournier said.

Asked about his party's polling numbers during a news conference on Wednesday, Singh argued he was the best choice for voters worried about social services like health care.

"If you want someone that's going to defend you and your family, that's us. That's my team behind me," Singh told reporters.

But Grenier said the party still has a lot of ground to make up if they want to regain the support they've lost.

"They've really lost almost half of their voters and they're in serious, serious trouble," Grenier said.

Fortunes can turn quickly

Ipsos's latest poll doesn't account for undecided voters, while Leger's most recent survey found 10 per cent of Canadians were unsure who they'd support.

Even though that number might seem high, Fournier said he wouldn't put too much weight on undecided voters being a factor in an election because they generally don't vote or end up falling in line with the decided voter trends.

Grenier pointed to two past instances where an unpopular governing party had a surge in the polls when they elected a new leader: the Progressive Conservatives under Kim Campbell in 1993 and the Liberals under John Turner in 1984. Both lost in the subsequent general elections.

"There was a balloon, a honeymoon, for the new leader and then it subsequently popped and they ended up having disastrous results," Grenier said.

Both Fournier and Grenier said that Turner and Campbell ran poor campaigns which ultimately led to their support dropping. They said what happens with the current trends will depend on the next campaign — which could be as early as this spring.

"Could the Liberals still blow this? Oh, absolutely they could," Fournier said.

"A bad interview, a stupid comment here or there and then it could revert back. This is very soft support that is returning to the Liberals."

There have been instances where a new leader has been able help their parties get re-elected, such as Pierre Trudeau in 1968. Former Ontario premier Kathleen Wynne and former B.C. premier Christy Clark also did it at the provincial level in 2014 and 2013, respectively.

"Maybe [the Liberals] can sustain these numbers, but it is such a dramatic and new shift in support that it can't be very solid," Grenier said.

"The sun rises and the sun sets and what's been a very positive few weeks for them could suddenly become a very negative few weeks again."

Fournier said where things go from here is difficult to predict.

"I wish I could put my fist in the air [and] say, 'I know what's going to happen.' But I really don't," he said.