The NDP suffered from a credibility gap in 2021 — and Singh's TikToks may not have helped: report
The party says it has learned the lessons of the last election as it prepares for the next
The NDP suffered from a credibility gap with voters during the 2021 federal election, says an internal party campaign review document.
The campaign debrief was posted quietly on the party's website earlier this year. It presents a mixed assessment of the NDP's performance in the last election.
It suggests party leader Jagmeet Singh's personal image took a hit during the campaign due to his vague statements on the campaign trail. An unnamed national NDP campaign staffer quoted in the report said the lack of "something concrete" in Singh's public statements did him no favours.
"It's like someone is drowning — Jagmeet is very caring and genuinely understands what the person is going through. He then tells them other leaders cannot help," the staffer said, according to the report.
"But then he didn't throw a buoy, a rope that gives hope of getting out of there, something concrete to hold on to."
Although the report says Singh's social media presence was a source of strength for the party, it questions whether his TikTok posts diminished his political gravitas.
"Local candidates shared that Jagmeet's and the federal party's use of social media helped them build support on the ground, especially with young voters," the report says.
"There was suggestion that Jagmeet's notoriety on TikTok makes him appear 'less serious,' which needs to be addressed."
The internal report draws attention to how critics both within and outside the NDP suggested its platform lacked substance. The report's authors say they heard the platform needed — but didn't have — independent voices verifying that a New Democrat government could deliver on its commitments.
That problem was "exacerbated," the report says, by the campaign's decision to wait until just days before election day itself to disclose that its promises would cost $214 billion and to explain how they would be funded. It left an impression with voters that the party's approach was to "throw money at" problems, the report says.
"This hurts our credibility with voters and did not provide the true 'fix' they are looking for," the report says.
Not all of the problems identified by the internal party document had to do with messaging. The report noted how the NDP sustained a blow when First Nations leaders in Manitoba appeared at a campaign event with Singh — only to later endorse a Liberal candidate instead.
And not everything went according to plan on election day, either. The report says the party's voter outreach software platforms — CallHub and Dandelion — "crashed when they were needed most." Such software is key to winning modern elections; it allows parties to identify their supporters and make sure they make it to the polls.
NDP political strategist Bob Dewar led the 2021 campaign post-mortem review. Dewar and his team conducted online surveys and met with members of the NDP caucus, electoral district associations (EDAs) and other bodies within the party.
The report says the NDP entered the 2021 campaign in solid financial shape, with no debt and $24 million in the bank — more than double what it had in the previous election campaign. Although the party increased its national vote share and gained three new seats, the party lost Hamilton Mountain in Ontario and was shut out of Atlantic Canada, losing St. John's East in Newfoundland.
Strategic voting and pressure on the right
The party is "operationalizing" these lessons, said NDP national director Anne McGrath, and is especially focused on what went wrong in tight races like the one in a Halifax, N.S. riding where the New Democrat lost by 1,558 votes.
"That's always heartbreaking when you miss a seat by that much," said McGrath. "(But) in Eastern Canada, I think there's a real thirst to have an NDP presence at the federal level."
Across Canada, McGrath said, the party is hiring full-time regional directors to work with electoral district associations (EDAs) outside the writ period. The NDP is nominating candidates earlier, building up fundraising capacity locally and keeping EDAs active between elections, she added.
Strategic voting — the practice which often sees New Democrat supporters cast ballots for Liberals to keep Conservatives from winning — had an "outsized impact" in the last election and will be a challenge for the party going forward, the report says.
But riding-by-riding results from 2021 also show the party was in tight contests with the Conservatives throughout rural B.C., the Prairies and rural Ontario. And the internal review document says New Democrats in ridings like Timmins-James Bay in northern Ontario heard voters expressing "deep disdain" for Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and frustrations about pandemic restrictions — factors that saw some New Democrat support bleed to the Conservatives and the People's Party of Canada in 2021.
WATCH | The NDP's Anne McGrath talks about how New Democrats will handle Pierre Poilievre
Now the Conservatives have a social-media savvy leader in Pierre Poilievre — someone who focuses on bread-and-butter issues like affordability that traditionally have played a large role in the NDP's appeal to voters.
The NDP will need to deliver a "sharp critique" of Poilievre's outreach to working-class voters, McGrath said.
"He's talking about the cost of bacon. He's talking about gas prices. He's talking about the things people are preoccupied with right now," she said. "(But) I haven't heard any big solutions beyond very simplistic things that actually don't make sense."
The report cautions that, as an election campaign taking place during a pandemic, the 2021 campaign was an anomaly and is "not indicative of the NDP's future." But with no clear indication of which party will be their primary rival in the next election, McGrath said New Democrats aren't taking anything for granted.
"If it's a change election, then people need to have choices," she said. "I think we have to be very clear that if you want to replace the government, you can replace the government with a new government that actually reflects your priorities and that cares about you."
If change is in the air, there's no guarantee New Democrats won't get swept away with the Liberals after they struck a deal with Trudeau in March to keep his minority government in power until 2025 in exchange for action on NDP policy priorities.
But if support is strong for the Trudeau Liberals, the NDP could find itself in a familiar squeeze.
In the early 1970s, the NDP under David Lewis supported the minority Liberal government. Back then, as now, Canada was struggling with high oil prices and persistently high inflation. In the 1974 election, support for the NDP fell and the Liberals under Pierre Trudeau marched to a majority government.
"His son is going back to that playbook and seems to be using it effectively," said Jeffrey MacLeod, a professor of political and Canadian studies at Mount Saint Vincent University.
"We'll see if it works for Justin Trudeau."
NDP insiders reject suggestions that working with other parties will harm their election chances. In the 2011 election, McGrath said, voters rewarded the party with 103 seats and Official Opposition status after it supported the minority Conservative government on key pieces of legislation.
"There's always a danger, but I think that you can counter that by making it clear to people that you have a choice," said McGrath. "You don't have to do what you've always done. You can do something else and can get results that actually will make a difference in your life."
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
