Liberal MPs gather in B.C. to confront a new political landscape
The Liberals lost their temporary alliance with the NDP and their campaign director in the same week
In early July, as the Liberal caucus was still reeling from the party's unexpected byelection loss in Toronto-St. Paul's, Liberal caucus chair Brenda Shanahan dismissed calls for a special meeting of Liberal MPs to discuss the state of the party and the government.
Such a meeting was not possible, Shanahan told MPs, due to "scheduling logistics."
Two months later, Liberal MPs will get their meeting. They're gathering in Nanaimo, B.C. for their annual summer caucus retreat ahead of Parliament's fall sitting.
Back in July, the talk in Liberal Party circles was about what might need to change. And the last two months might be measured by what has and has not changed.
While questions were raised about Justin Trudeau's leadership in the wake of Toronto-St. Paul's, Trudeau remains the prime minister. Scattered calls for his resignation that threatened to snowball in early July ultimately petered out.
Despite widespread speculation in the chat rooms and restaurant booths of Ottawa, a major cabinet shuffle failed to materialize. In mid-July, Steven MacKinnon was moved over to the labour ministry to fill a vacancy created by Seamus O'Regan's departure. Karina Gould has resumed her duties as House leader after her maternity leave. Otherwise, the cabinet Trudeau started the summer with remains unchanged.
One potential new wrinkle is the possible involvement of Mark Carney. The former governor of both the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, who has been an object of fascination in political circles for years, is expected to be in Nanaimo, though there is no official confirmation of what he will be doing while he's there.
Another thing that hasn't changed is the Liberal Party's position in opinion polls. On June 30, 338Canada's polling aggregator put the Liberals at 24 per cent, 18 points behind the Conservative Party. Two months later, the Conservatives are still at 42 per cent and the Liberals are at 25 per cent.
"I would argue that we've done a good job in government and I think we've delivered important programs that have had meaningful changes and impacts on the lives of Canadians, but I think it's natural after nine years for people to kick the tires and see what else is on offer," Gould told Rosemary Barton Live this past weekend.
"Where I think the challenge is here is that Mr. Poilievre doesn't actually want to share his vision, because it's unlikely that it's something that resonates with a lot of Canadians. "
Life after the Liberal-NDP pact
Liberals might note that one other thing is unchanged: they remain in government. But on that score one big thing has changed: the confidence-and-supply agreement the Liberals and NDP signed in March 2022 is no longer operative.
The demise of that deal will force the Liberals to change the way they approach the House of Commons — and could change what they end up deciding to do. The end of the agreement doesn't necessarily mean a federal election is imminent, but it does change the week-to-week calculus for the government and could shake up the politics on Parliament Hill.
Whenever the next election comes, the Liberal campaign will also now be managed by a different national director. Twenty-four hours after NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced that the New Democrats were walking away from the confidence-and-supply agreement, Liberal national campaign director Jeremy Broadhurst, a long-time aide and adviser in the Trudeau government, announced he was stepping aside.
"We know that this is also an opportunity to make sure we have new ideas, new people, a new approach," Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly told reporters last week.
Four days after the Liberals finish their meetings in Nanaimo, byelections will be held in the Manitoba riding of Elmwood-Transcona and the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun — the latter a Liberal stronghold that might now be in danger.
If the Liberals lose the Montreal seat, the consternation that marked the start of the Liberal Party's summer could come rushing back.
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