How long does 'real change' last? 5 Liberal changes that are likely to stick

Every new government comes in promising change, which often means reversing the policies of the previous government.

Justin Trudeau's Liberals are no different, pledging to undo much of what the Conservative government did over the past decade, as well as enacting new polices of its own.

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Stephen Harper was no different, cutting the GST two points, cancelling the Liberals' long-gun registry and disbanding the decades-old Canadian Wheat Board over the course of his nearly 10 years in power.

Those changes look likely to endure. The Liberals show no inclination to reverse the first two and the sale of the wheat board makes its reinstatement moot.

But some changes are not so long-lasting. For example, specific tax credits, child-care supports and decisions about contracts for military equipment seem to be reversed and then reversed again with every change in government.

The Liberals promised "real change" on the campaign trail and have moved swiftly on many fronts. How many of their promised changes are likely to endure beyond their rule, and not simply be reversed by a future government of a different stripe?

Here's a look at five issues that dominated political debate for years — but may fade away as wedge issues.

1. Face coverings at citizenship ceremonies

The so-called niqab ban was a hot-button issue during the election even though it affected a very small minority of people. In instituting a policy against face coverings such as the one worn by some Muslim women, the Conservatives argued everyone should show their faces when "joining the Canadian family."

Zunera Ishaq took Ottawa to court and won. The Conservatives appealed and lost again and then promised to go the Supreme Court, but the Liberals have officially abandoned the case.

"Would the Conservatives campaign to reinstate their legal challenge? I kind of doubt it," says Bruce Anderson, chairman of polling and market research firm Abacus Data. 

Conservative strategist Tim Powers of Summa Strategies is unequivocal, saying no Conservative will "touch it with a 10-foot pole" again. "Wedge politics will take other forms in the future, but this one was a miserable failure," he says, adding the idea floated during the campaign of a "barbaric cultural practices hotline" is also dead.

2. Long-form census

The Liberals are reinstating the long-form census, which the Conservative government cancelled five years ago, citing privacy concerns. The cancellation was widely criticized by researchers, analysts and planners who rely on detailed data for their work. The opposition Liberals and NDP also cried foul.

"The Conservatives' argument against it was thin," says Anderson.

Powers adds that new technology will likely make data collection naturally evolve away from conventional census-taking in the future anyway. But even so, the Conservatives "are not going to go back and fight that battle again."

In fact, Tony Clement, the former Conservative minister who oversaw and defended the cancellation, now says in hindsight, "I think I would have done it differently."

3. Refugee health-care benefits

The new Liberal government has made health benefits available to Syrian refugees arriving each week, and it promises to reinstate the benefits for all refugees soon.

In 2012, the Conservatives made cuts to the interim federal health program, which had the effect of denying some health benefits to some refugee claimants. At the time, the Liberals and NDP denounced the changes.

Refugee advocates and doctors' groups took legal action and won when a federal judge called the effects of the changes "cruel and unusual" and therefore unconstitutional. But the Conservative government appealed the ruling. The Liberals have abandoned that appeal.

Once the program is fully back, it's likely to stay. "Nothing is impossible to change (back), but this would fall into the 'hard to change' category," says Anderson.

That's because it would likely mean more court battles and use up valuable political capital for very little gain, says another political watcher, speaking on background.

Powers adds that, due to Canada's aging population and the need for young workers that our birth rate is not providing, a more open-door policy towards refugees might be lasting as well. "Higher levels of refugees coming in and a greater openness to a broader class of refugees," is likely.

4. Retirement benefits

During the the election campaign, the Liberals and NDP committed to restoring the age of eligibility for Old Age Security to 65 from 67. The Conservative government had raised it to 67 in the 2012 budget (with a phase-in period starting in 2023), arguing that an aging population meant it would not be financially viable to keep it at 65.

Powers says keeping it at 65 would depend on the nation's finances and how challenging the demographics turn out to be. 

But, campaigning on those kind of changes can be difficult, as then prime minister Brian Mulroney found in the 1980s when he was forced to back down on the de-indexing of pensions in the face of a seniors' backlash.

5. Legalizing marijuana

The Liberal promise to "legalize, regulate and restrict" the recreational use of marijuana won't be an easy task and will be fraught with challenges, but experts expect this to be a matter of when and not if. And once in place, the changes could be hard to undo.

Anderson argues "unless the new system results in chaos and reefer madness, where whole segments of the Canadian population become indolent" due to pot use, marijuana is not likely to become recriminalized, as there is not a great deal of upside in doing that. "Public opinion has clearly moved in this direction," says Anderson.

"The Conservatives will likely let this one go," Powers agrees. "There's no stopping this. These will be seen as legitimate changes not unlike what was done with alcohol in the past."