The Liberal-NDP deal is dead — but that doesn't necessarily mean a fall election
While the end of the deal leaves PM Trudeau in a tight spot, he has options
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh's decision to pull his party out of the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals injects a lot of uncertainty into Canadian politics — and it could lead to a federal election earlier than planned.
The Liberal government is on shakier ground now that it can't rely on the NDP to prop it up on confidence votes in a Parliament where Team Trudeau holds a minority of the seats.
But it doesn't mean the government will soon fall on a confidence vote — a vote that determines whether the government has the support of the House of Commons.
It could still engage in some horse-trading with the NDP or one of the other opposition parties to cobble together enough votes to get its legislation through Parliament and stave off an election.
An opposition party could support the government's agenda piecemeal, and not through a formal agreement like the one that was ripped up today.
Is Canada headed for an election?
Not yet — but one could come sooner than planned.
After Singh's decision to blow up the agreement that's kept the Liberals on solid footing for the last two years-plus, the government is undoubtedly in a much more precarious position.
Under the supply-and-confidence agreement, the Liberals essentially could govern as if they had a majority government.
That agreement was supposed to be in place until June 2025, meaning an election wasn't expected until next summer at the earliest.
Now, the Liberal government's future is on a knife's edge — it could be brought down at any time through a non-confidence vote when Parliament returns later this month.
While Singh is terminating the agreement with the Liberals — or SACA, as it's known in parliamentary circles — it doesn't necessarily mean the party is ready for an election campaign. That's a costly endeavour for a party that has pulled in a lot less money through fundraising than the two major parties.
Canada's fixed-date election law dictates that a vote will happen in October 2025 — but that date is moot if a majority of MPs turn on the Liberals or if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau goes to the Governor General to request an early election.
Lori Turnbull, a professor of political science at Dalhousie University, said the Liberal government could stay in power until it tables its next budget in the spring.
"If I'm a betting person — and I may regret ever saying this — I suspect we'll see a budget election," Turnbull said, suggesting Canadians could head to the polls sometime after that document is tabled in March or April.
An election in mid-2025 would give the NDP enough time to distance itself from its partnership with the unpopular Liberal government and raise the money and resources to mount an effective election campaign focused on keeping the Conservatives out of power, Turnbull said.
How could the Liberals hold power until then?
Under Canada's Westminster system of parliamentary democracy, the prime minister and his government must enjoy the confidence of a majority of MPs to remain in office.
That confidence is sometimes tested through a confidence vote. The government can designate any vote a confidence vote, while any bill related to the government's budget is usually regarded as a confidence vote. An individual MP can also table a motion of non-confidence at any time to try and topple the government.
If the Liberal government wants to win those votes, Trudeau and his cabinet will have to convince at least one of the major opposition parties to vote their way.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has signalled he will not back the government. Riding high in the polls, he wants an election sooner rather than later. He tabled a non-confidence motion in the spring but it was easily defeated.
"Canadians need a carbon tax election NOW," Poilievre said in a social media post Wednesday after Singh announced he was ending the SACA.
That leaves the separatist Bloc Québécois and the NDP as possible Liberal dance partners in the coming months.
The Liberals hold 154 of the 338 seats in Parliament. To get to a majority of 169 MPs, the Liberals need either the NDP (24 MPs) or the Bloc (32 MPs) to stand with them. The Green Party holds just two seats and isn't much of a factor in confidence votes.
Why would the NDP support the Liberals again?
It's an open question whether the NDP will support the Liberals on a future confidence vote. Anne McGrath, the NDP's national director, told CBC News last week the party still wants to get more out of the Liberal government before the next election.
That means the NDP could offer limited support on confidence votes in this sitting of Parliament in exchange for some more policy commitments.
The NDP already has pushed the government to expand the social safety net through new pharmacare and dental programs.
But as it stands, pharmacare is a very limited program that covers just contraceptives and diabetes treatments. The NDP has said it wants a more robust regime.
"I really hope the NDP stays focused on how we can deliver for Canadians, as we have over the last years, rather than focusing on politics," Trudeau said.
"We still have work to do to continue rolling out dental care, and I hope the NDP will continue to fight for that this fall."
There are other elements of SACA that have not been implemented, including legislation to create some sort of "safe long-term care act," which the agreement stipulates must guarantee seniors "the care they deserve, no matter where they live."
The Liberal-NDP agreement also called for some electoral changes, including an expansion of "election day" to three days of voting and allowing people to vote at any polling place in their riding — policies that were not enacted before Singh's about-face.
The Liberals could negotiate NDP support through the fall and winter in exchange for action on the issues the NDP cares about most.
What's Trudeau's message to the NDP?
At the Liberal cabinet retreat last week, Trudeau said the government's priority this fall will be a renewed focus on policy.
While questions are swirling around Trudeau's future at the top after the byelection loss in Toronto-St. Paul's earlier this summer, the prime minister said his priority is listening to what's concerning Canadians and crafting legislative solutions.
The government is already clamping down on low-wage temporary foreign workers amid concerns about an out-of-control immigration system. It's slapping big tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles to protect a nascent Canadian industry from what the government calls unfair foreign competition.
Trudeau is also pushing ahead with plans for a national school food program, announcing Wednesday the first deal for such an initiative in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Trudeau suggested Wednesday he's not angling for an election any time soon — and he urged Singh to support policies the two progressive parties have been backing for the last two years.
"I'll let other parties focus on politics. I'm focused on actually delivering the things Canadians told me this summer they need," Trudeau said.
"I certainly hope that the NDP will stay true to its fundamental values, which is making sure that Canadians get the support they need and keeping away the austerity the cuts and the damage that will be done by Conservatives if they get the chance."
- What questions do you have about the NDP ending its supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals? Send an email to ask@cbc.ca.
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