Lengthy election favours Tories, At Issue panellists say
Leaders' debate could be make-or-break moment for Justin Trudeau
Prime Minister Stephen Harper's cash-rich Conservative Party will benefit the most from an 11-week election campaign, CBC's At Issue panellists agree. But Toronto Star political columnist Chantal Hébert said a long campaign could also be a sign the prime minister isn't confident in his ability to win.
Watch the full At Issue panel above.
Harper is expected to call an election Sunday, kicking off the longest Canadian federal election campaign since 1926. Hébert said the tactic is all about the money
"The Conservatives have a lot of it — more than the other parties," Hébert said.
A longer election campaign means a higher ceiling of allowable expenses, under the rules set by Elections Canada, she noted.
In a typical 37-day election period, each party can spend a maximum of $25 million. For each additional day, the limit is increased by 1/37th, meaning an 11-week campaign would allow parties to spend more than $50 million.
Bruce Anderson, chairman of the polling firm Abacus Data, said the Tories started campaigning a long time ago, spending taxpayer money on advertising campaigns touting the Harper government's economic policies.
"They've been kind of gorging on our money to help build the platform for their campaign, and now they're going to use their own over a long period of time because they think that will give them an advantage over the others," Anderson said.
A lengthy campaign may also be a ploy to silence third-party groups like the anti-Conversative Engage Canada, according to Maclean's political columnist Paul Wells.
"I think it became interesting to Stephen Harper, the idea of having a long, long campaign during which those groups are forbidden from spending money," Wells said.
But Hébert said the lengthy campaign also points to desperation among Conservatives.
"It speaks to a kind of scramble to grab every advantage in sight, and that is not usually the behaviour of a party that thinks it's doing well," she said.
Leaders' debate to put Trudeau on trial
Wells is set to host the campaign's first leaders' debate Thursday night, and the panellists agree it will be huge test for Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, who has recently been losing traction to the NDP's Thomas Mulcair.
The Liberal leader's words are more likely to come under attack by the Tories, said Althia Raj, Ottawa bureau chief for the Huffington Post.
"If Thomas Mulcair says something stupid in the middle of the debate, I don't think the Tories are going to snip it and it put it in an attack ad continuously for a month, whereas they will probably do that if Justin Trudeau says something stupid," said Raj.
By luck of the draw, Trudeau gets the first question of the debate, and Harper will be first to respond.
"We're gonna have a fun night," Wells said.