Trudeau's crisis test: Fort McMurray visit will be closely scrutinized
History has shown political reputations can be made or lost during a crisis
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in Fort McMurray today to see first-hand the devastation caused by the wildfire that forced the evacuation of the city, and to re-assure the 90,000 or so residents who have no timetable to return that his government will remain with them long after he leaves.
His visit is, to some, long overdue. If not to the city itself, to Alberta where this fire, with all its fury, was just the latest injury to a province trying to cope with the impact of lower oil prices, a huge jump in unemployment and the loss of a major source of revenue.
To others, he's arriving at just the right time, after the immediate threat is gone and when those affected need to know that hope, at least, wasn't lost in the flames.
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This isn't just some esoteric debate among the chattering classes. Trudeau will be watched closely during this quick trip, and will need all of his communication skills and every ounce of the compassion and empathy he's shown before.
What the prime minister does and says will also be compared to how Alberta Premier Rachel Notley handled this crisis. So far at least, Notley's been nearly universally praised for striking the right tone in her news conferences during the worst of the fire, for her frankness in telling the people of Fort McMurray that she can't say when they will be able to return, and for her government's response from issuing debit cards to those who need cash now to survive, to promising the city will be rebuilt.
"She has provided the kind of empathetic and competent leadership that people are looking for in this period," longtime political strategist David Herle said on The National's The Insiders panel. "And she's presiding over what appears to be a highly efficient and well-prepared emergency management system."
Fair or not, political reputations can be made, or lost, during a crisis.
On the day of the 9/11 attacks 15 years ago, New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani became what Time writer Eric Pooley called "the voice of America'' while U.S. President George W. Bush was out of sight.
"Every time he spoke, millions of people felt a little better," Pooley wrote. "His words were full of grief and iron, inspiring New York to inspire the nation."
Contrast that with Prime Minister Jean Chretien's decision to make a quick tour of flood-ravaged Manitoba in 1997, before calling an election a few hours later. Chretien went on to win, but his reputation took a hit at the time for treating a disaster as a photo opportunity.
Or when Alexander Haig, flushed and breathless, told Americans on March 30, 1981, that he was in charge at the White House after President Ronald Reagan was shot, a performance so un-reassuring that it's a textbook example of how not to communicate in a crisis.
It is, at its root, about leadership. And sometimes that can mean not getting in the way.
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For Justin Trudeau, playing a supportive role to Notley's lead was both prudent and politically astute, says Bill Walker, a former parliamentary bureau chief for the Toronto Star who now runs a consulting firm specializing in crisis communications.
"By staying away he allowed the first responders to do their jobs. He's spoken about the fire, he's shown he's been well-briefed. The attention is where it needs to be — on what his government can do to help."
The Trudeau government pledged to match Canadians' contributions to the Red Cross disaster relief fund dollar for dollar, with no cap on the amount. That fund reached more than $60 million. It also contributed military equipment to fight the fire.
This week Trudeau created a special cabinet committee to co-ordinate the federal government's contributions to the recovery and rebuilding efforts in northern Alberta.
It's all forward-looking. All focused on the real work ahead. And that, Walker says, is why Trudeau now needs to step up. To visit the area. To listen to what people say. And, above all, to avoid speculating about timing and outcomes.
"We're moving away from the immediate threat to the long term when the headlines are gone, when the attention is less. That's when the evacuees will need support the most. That's when the federal government needs to assume that leadership role."
Looking ahead
And there are many challenges ahead.
When can people return to their homes? When can the work of rebuilding begin? What federal resources will be available to assist people who've lost their homes and their livelihoods? What help will be available to the oil sector, which is so important not just to Fort McMurray, but to the province and country as a whole?
That last one, above all, requires the most out of Trudeau's leadership skills.
With his promise to confront climate change, to subject pipelines to a more thorough environmental review, responding to calls to assist the oil sector won't be easy, especially when the long-term support Notley and Albertans want most is a pipeline to take their oil to market.
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