The Pollcast: Will U.K. pollsters get it right?
Host Éric Grenier is joined by David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data
The CBC Pollcast, hosted by CBC poll analyst Éric Grenier, explores the world of electoral politics, political polls and the trends they reveal.
After missing the call in the United Kingdom's last general election in 2015, British pollsters have adopted new approaches to measure voting intentions in the run-up to Thursday's election.
But as pollsters make adjustments to estimate the make-up of the voting population on Thursday, a dizzying number of scenarios have emerged from their numbers, ranging anywhere from a Conservative majority of historic proportions to another hung parliament.
In the context of the upcoming — and likely difficult — negotiations over the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union, the repercussions of the election could be significant.
Theresa May called a snap election for June 8 when she was enjoying a wide lead over her Labour rivals. She called for a strong majority to give her a solid mandate for the Brexit negotiations. Her Conservatives had 330 seats in the House of Commons — just above the 326-mark needed for a majority government.
But some of the final polls suggest the goal of a substantially enlarged majority might be out of her grasp. Are those numbers trustworthy?
In 2015, the polls pegged the Conservatives and Labour neck-and-neck, missing the Tories' actual six-point margin of victory. In response, pollsters are now trying different methods to estimate likely turnout and ensure their samples are representative.
But in trying to avoid the mistakes of the past, are pollsters about to make entirely new mistakes?
To discuss what pollsters are doing in the U.K. — and whether there are any lessons to be drawn for Canadian pollsters — Pollcast host Éric Grenier is joined by David Coletto of Abacus Data.
Listen to the full discussion above — or subscribe to the CBC Pollcast and listen to past episodes.
Follow Éric Grenier and David Coletto on Twitter.