Foreign meddling didn't affect who formed government in past 2 elections, but inquiry flags 'troubling' events
Commissioner Hogue's report will also look into the flow of intelligence
The public inquiry investigating foreign interference says attempts by other countries to meddle in Canada's past two elections are a "stain" on this country's electoral system, but ultimately did not affect which political party formed government.
"Our systems remain sound," said Commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue on Friday after releasing her first report on allegations of foreign interference in the 2019 and 2021 general elections.
"Voters were able to cast their ballots, their votes were duly registered and counted, and there is nothing to suggest that there was any interference whatsoever in this regard."
Friday's report said it's possible the results in a small number of ridings were affected by foreign interference "but this cannot be said with certainty."
While she said foreign meddling did not affect the overall election results, Hogue stressed foreign interference "undermined the right of voters to have an electoral ecosystem free from coercion or covert influence."
Friday's report also states some foreign adversaries still managed to accomplish one of their goals: undermining public confidence in Canadian democracy.
"They succeeded in part in 2019 and 2021 because some Canadians have now reduced trust in Canada's democratic process," said the nearly 200-page report.
"This is perhaps the greatest harm Canada has suffered as a result of foreign interference."
The inquiry was triggered by media reports last year which, citing unnamed security sources and classified documents, accused China of interfering in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Some of the reports also suggested members of the Liberal government were aware of certain attempts at interference but didn't act.
Since January, Hogue and her team of lawyers have heard hours of sometimes contradictory testimony about the breadth of foreign interference in the past two elections by multiple countries, including China and Russia, and whether information was shared with the right people at the right times.
China, India and Pakistan named
Hogue said none of the evidence she's heard to date suggests officials acted in "bad faith" or that information was deliberately and improperly withheld.
"But it does suggest that on some occasions, information related to foreign interference did not reach its intended recipient, while on others the information was not properly understood by those who received it," she wrote.
"These are serious issues that need to be investigated and considered."
China stands out as "the most persistent and sophisticated foreign interference threat to Canada," according to the report.
As for its methods, the report said Beijing doesn't support any particular political party in Canada but appears instead to try and push its own interests by opposing those it sees as anti-People's Republic of China.
Hogue's report cited intelligence suggesting a proxy agent of the government of India "may have attempted" to secretly give money to unnamed candidates in the 2021 federal election. Hogue said the source of "any such financial contribution could have been unknown to the candidates."
The inquiry has heard that the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) conducted what it called a "threat reduction measure" ahead of the vote meant to "reduce the foreign interference threat posed by the Government of Pakistan." Friday's report revealed the spy agency met with candidates and elected officials who had been targeted for foreign interference by Pakistan ahead of the 2019 campaign.
Hogue can't exclude possibility PRC interfered in Han Dong's win
One of the specific claims examined during the inquiry centred on alleged irregularities during the 2019 Don Valley North Liberal nomination contest.
The inquiry has seen intelligence summaries from CSIS suggesting that, before the election, it worried international students may have been bused in to take part in the nomination vote and were given fake documents to allow them to vote for Han Dong, who went on to win the Liberal nomination.
After the election, some intelligence indicated the Chinese consulate threatened students, implying their student visas would be in jeopardy and suggesting there could be consequences for their families back in China if they didn't take part, the inquiry heard.
Hogue's report said "there are strong indications" that there was a bus transporting international students, most likely Chinese, to the the Don Valley North nomination contest, and those students likely voted in support of Han Dong. She also said the available intelligence "reflects a well-grounded suspicion that the busing of international students was tied to the PRC."
Hogue wrote that classified information reinforces that conclusion.
"I cannot exclude the possibility that, if the PRC did interfere in the Don Valley North nomination, this may have impacted the result of the nomination contest," she wrote.
Her report notes that the riding is considered a safe Liberal seat, so if foreign interference played a role in the nomination period it likely didn't change which party won in the general election.
"It would, however, have affected who was elected to Parliament. This is significant," she said.
Dong left the Liberal caucus last year after Global News published a report alleging he advised a senior Chinese diplomat in February 2021 that Beijing should hold off on releasing two detained Canadians. He has denied those allegations, along with suggestions he's a willing tool of the PRC.
During the public hearings, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he was briefed about concerns that CSIS had about Dong's nomination contest. He said he didn't believe the evidence was sufficient to remove Dong as a candidate and dropping him would have had a devastating impact on his life.
Hogue made a point of raising in her public repot comments Trudeau made to her in his closed-doors testimony.
"Trudeau noted that un-endorsing Mr. Dong would have direct electoral consequences as the [Liberal Party] expected to win [Don Valley North]," she wrote.
Impact in Kenny Chiu's riding uncertain
Another riding that was flagged for potential foreign interference was the 2021 electoral race in Steveston–Richmond East.
During the campaign, misinformation about the Conservative Party, then Conservative leader Erin O'Toole and Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu circulated on social media with ties to the PRC, such as WeChat.
Chiu has said he believes he was targeted over his proposed bill to set up a public registry in Canada that would track foreign influence campaigns.
Hogue's report said while no definitive link between these false narratives and Beijing has been proven, "there are strong indicators of PRC involvement."
She said there's a "reasonable possibility that the media narrative" could have affected the result in Steveston–Richmond East, but it's difficult to determine.
"Nonetheless, the acts of interference that occurred are a stain on our electoral process and impacted the process leading up to the actual vote," she said.
"The facts revealed by the evidence I have heard so far show that intelligence agencies collected information about troubling events that occurred in a handful of ridings during the 2019 and 2021 elections."
O'Toole testified that he believes his party lost five to nine seats because of a foreign misinformation campaign aimed at Conservative candidates in B.C. and Ontario, and at his party more generally.
Hogue said she didn't see evidence to match O'Toole's numbers but she did conclude that foreign interference "likely impacted some votes"
She also flagged the "real risk" of politicians modifying their positions or their messages as a result of foreign interference.
"This outcome would be very detrimental to the functioning of our democracy, as it would undermine the fundamental principle that politicians must be free to express their opinions, and those of their constituents, without fear and without covert influence from a foreign state," reads the report.
Panel of five questioned
O'Toole also suggested the system the government set up to ward off the types of threats that tainted the 2016 U.S. presidential election and the Brexit vote failed.
Nicknamed the "panel of five," the team of top bureaucrats was tasked in 2019 and 2021 with monitoring foreign interference and issuing public warnings if they felt there was a threat to the integrity of the vote.
O'Toole suggested the panel should have issued public notices to voters warning them to be wary of information that they were obtaining from social media.
Members of the panel concluded that the threshold for such an announcement was not met. That conclusion was informed by the panel's impression that there was a self-cleansing media ecosystem.
"I am concerned by this reliance on the idea of a self-cleansing media ecosystem," wrote Hogue. "By the time that disinformation fades away, it may be too late."
The panel also concluded that the threshold for an announcement had not been met because the anti-Conservative narrative concerning Mr. O'Toole lost traction well before election day.
"The fact that the narratives targeting Mr. Chiu and Mr. O'Toole had died down by election day does not mean they had no effect," Hogue wrote.
She also suggested Canada's spy agency is "circumspect with details when informing others of the intelligence it has gathered and the conclusions it has drawn."
"In my view, revealing only general information with few specifics risks obscuring the importance of what is being communicated, thereby reducing the likelihood that those receiving the information will internalize and act on it," Hogue wrote.
"In saying this, I recognize that operational and security considerations may necessarily limit the level of detail that can be shared. Nevertheless, we must consider whether it is possible, and whether it is advisable, for our intelligence agencies to say more."
Impact of meddling could be 'more severe in the future'
Hogue's work is far from done. Her Friday report nods to paths she plans to examine over the next few months as she studies how Canada can better respond to the threat of foreign interference — a threat she said is expected to grow.
"Foreign interference has an impact when there is a single instance where a ballot is cast in a certain way, or not cast at all, because of a foreign state's direct or indirect enticement," she said. "This impact has likely been slight to date but may become more severe in the future."
Hogue said she needs more time before she can make definitive recommendations on how intelligence and information about foreign interference should be communicated within government, and how that information should be communicated to the public.
The Conservative Party, one of the most vocal proponents for the inquiry, said Hogue's report confirms their "long-standing concerns."
"For the sake of our democracy, the Trudeau government cannot continue to dismiss and minimize the interference that did occur," the party said in a media statement.
"We must consider Commissioner Hogue's conclusion that the interference that was allowed to occur undermined public confidence in our elections. She notes that the risk of foreign interference in our elections will increase as long as the Liberal Government fails to take 'sufficient protective measures to guard against it.'"
Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc said the federal government has been working to improve that intelligence sharing process.
Final report coming this year
The Liberals initially resisted calls from opposition parties for a public inquiry following the leak-based media stories. Its first move was to appoint former governor general David Johnston as special rapporteur on foreign interference to assess whether the Liberal government ignored threats or advice from national security agencies.
Johnston found no evidence that Trudeau or his ministers knowingly ignored intelligence, but concluded there needs to be a better flow of information between them. His May 2023 report disputed several Global News and Globe and Mail reports after reviewing associated intelligence in a broader context.
A few weeks after that report was released, Johnston — who had been accused of being unfit for the job because of his personal connections to Trudeau — stepped down, saying his role had become too tainted by political controversy for him to continue.
In September, the commission is expected to hold another round of hearings focused on Canada's capacity to detect and deter foreign interference.
A final report is due at the end of the year.
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