'It doesn't make sense': Experts question the Kremlin's account of that drone strike
Could Russia be propping up an excuse to make more nuclear threats?
When it comes to symbolic, made-for-TV moments, the alleged drone strike on the Kremlin early Wednesday morning ticks almost all of the boxes.
Foreign policy and defence experts say the dramatic, full-colour, unverified CCTV camera footage of some kind of object exploding in the predawn darkness just below a fluttering Russian flag is a propagandist's dream — at least for ultra-nationalists in Moscow worried about maintaining the morale of a war-weary public ahead of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The fact that Russian media quickly claimed it was an attempt by Ukraine to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin (who was not at home in the Kremlin at the time) and the fact that the explosion caused no casualties and little damage have only deepened the experts' suspicion that the flag pole blast was (ironically) a false flag operation by Moscow's security services.
Ukraine vehemently denies it was responsible.
WATCH: Unverified video appears to show drone hitting Kremlin
President Volodomyr Zelenskyy, who is in Helsinki for meetings with allies, said he believes Moscow staged the attack to galvanize public opinion in Russia.
"We don't attack Putin or Moscow," Zelenskyy said. "We fight on our own territory."
What's interesting to many observers is how there are just as many disadvantages as advantages for the Kremlin in accepting Russia's version of events.
'Military failure' or false flag?
Yes, it could whip the Russian public into a frenzy ahead of the annual May 9 Victory Day celebrations, commemorating the Nazis' defeat in the Second World War. It also looks like an enormous embarrassment for a defence and security establishment that has sustained a series of humiliations since the full invasion of Ukraine began, said a Kyiv-based defence expert.
A drone crashing into the flagpole at the Kremlin — slipping through the air defences of one of the most heavily guarded districts on the planet — would represent a major "military failure" of the sort that typically leads to heads rolling, said Oleksandr Musiienko, the head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies in Kyiv.
It wouldn't even be the first time Russia has been embarrassed from the air. In 1987, a German teenager named Mathias Rust evaded Soviet air defences to land a rented Cessna light aircraft near Red Square — an event that prompted the sacking of a number of high-level Russian military leaders.
You want to tweak the Russian bear's nose? Okay, fair enough. But this doesn't seem to accomplish anything.- Sean Maloney
Both Musiienko and Sean Maloney, a historian and expert on Soviet Cold War tactics, said they don't accept the Russian version of events — including the claim that it was an attempt on Putin's life.
"It's either reflexive to deflect on their part, to deflect against weakness, or it's all part of something they've already pre-scripted. It's one or the other, probably," said Maloney.
He said the initial Kremlin reports were stilted and made little military sense.
"That's my gut feel on this. Looking at it ... it doesn't make sense," he said. "Like, why? If you're going to assassinate Putin ... what would you do? Fly that [drone] through a window? Like what room is he in? Like, come on."
Maloney said Ukraine would have nothing to gain and absolutely everything to lose from launching such a strike on the Kremlin.
"I don't think the Ukrainians did it," he said. "We're back to, what purpose does this serve? You want to tweak the Russian bear's nose? Okay, fair enough. But this doesn't seem to accomplish anything."
Musiienko said the alleged attack could accomplish more for Russia than for Ukraine. A statement from the Kremlin said Russia reserved the right to retaliate — and hardliners demanded swift retribution against Zelenskyy.
It all reopens the door to a darker prospect, Musiienko said — that Moscow staged the attack to generate a pretext for renewing the use of nuclear threats against the West and Ukraine.
"They will say it was dangerous to the Russian state's sovereignty and they will look into their nuclear doctrine, Russian nuclear doctrine, and they will tell you that they have a right to use nuclear weapons," he said.
Musiienko said we should expect to see ultra-nationalists like Dmitry Medvedev, the former prime minister who now heads Russia's national security council, begin rattling the nuclear saber on social media.
The war has seen an increasing number of attacks within Russia and Russian-occupied territory in recent weeks. An oil refinery in Crimea was hit by a drone strike last weekend.
According to a batch of Pentagon documents leaked online over the last few months, American intelligence agencies believe Ukrainian agents have conducted drone attacks inside Belarus and Russia — against the wishes of their western allies.
Two documents, reported on by NBC News, suggest Ukraine launched provocative operations inside the neighbouring countries. Some allied nations have said any such actions might cause them to reconsider their ongoing support for Kyiv.
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