NDP insiders aim to stay competitive after 'a couple of rough weeks'

New Democratic Party insiders are crossing their fingers — and toes — in the hope an apparent arrest of the party's descent in the polls Thursday will stick, and preserve its ability to compete.

At the root of this aspiration is the belief among party strategists that there is a basement of more than 40 seats in Quebec that the party just can't lose.

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The NDP feels the political landscape in Quebec has not changed so significantly that the party's broad fortunes there are at risk.

Its strategists realize the potential for trouble with growing Liberal support on the Island of Montreal, and strong Conservative support in Quebec City. But even in those circumstances, organizers believe there is support in Quebec that can be counted on to elect New Democrats.

The party analysis is that the decline in the polls in Quebec was attributed to a single issue: "It's the f--king niqab," one strategist said.

Another referred to that period as "a couple of rough weeks.… We definitely lost a bit of steam."

The party did voter research on the topic, and an insider says the party learned Quebecers were still willing to support NDP Leader Tom Mulcair, despite his party's position on the wearing of the niqab at citizenship ceremonies.

This doesn't mean the party is content with its current level of support in the province. But it suggests NDP strategists feel comfortable their incumbents will not be swept away as the party's support diminishes. 

Eyes on Edmonton

But that is not at all the case outside Quebec.

Trudeau's strong polling is leading to concerns elsewhere in Canada that New Democrats could lose seats they currently hold. That's the case in Edmonton Strathcona, where NDP candidate Linda Duncan faces a tough fight against Conservative Len Thom.

The challenge is made worse for Duncan, an NDP source said on background, because of growing support for Liberal candidate Eleanor Olszewski.

Even if Olszewski can't win the riding, she could strip enough support away from Duncan to allow the strongly supported Conservative candidate to win.

This challenge is repeated in other ridings where the 2011 races were tight contests between the NDP and Conservatives.

In any event, the NDP is confident that the Liberal support is broad but inefficient, that is to say, unable to actually elect MPs.

B.C. battle

New Democrats are watching British Columbia closely as well, expecting that a reported drop in support in the province for the Conservatives could help elect NDP MPs there. One strategist suggested as many as 25 seats in B.C. could end up in NDP hands. But that number seems exceptionally optimistic. Current seat projections based on analysis by CBC polling analyst Éric Grenier has the party taking just 14 seats. 

Earlier in the campaign, some in the NDP were optimistic the party would be able to win more than 140 seats. Those numbers today seem far out of reach.

They also did not account for the plunging support in Quebec, or the Trudeau surge.

The Orange Wave that surged the NDP out of fourth place in 2011 and into the Official Opposition was a largely Quebec-based phenomenon. The polls there turned quick and fast — and right at the end of the 2011 campaign.

Party insiders at the time knew if support reached toward 40 per cent, there was no way they could not win seats. 

It seems likely that's possible for the Liberals, too, although polls don't yet show a surge that strong.

NDP strategists insisted to the CBC that the election was still a three-way race.

And if it is, and NDP support holds, it's possible Canada will be faced with a kind of stalemate election result, with the three big parties each winning too few seats to form a majority government.