Bill Morneau on the deficit: By the numbers
Finance Minister Bill Morneau has provided another snapshot of the economy ahead of his next budget, which will be delivered March 22. He is projecting a much larger deficit than his forecast and well over the $10-billion limit promised during the campaign. Here's a look at some of the numbers.
Finance Minister Bill Morneau has provided another snapshot of the economy ahead of his next budget, which will be delivered March 22. He is projecting a deficit of at least $18.4 billion next year, a shortfall nearly five times his forecast last fall and well over the $10-billion limit promised during the campaign.
Here are some of Morneau's latest numbers, based on an average of private-sector projections, compared with earlier projections from his November economic update:
Deficit
- 2015-16: $2.3 billion, down from $3.0 billion in the fall update.
- 2016-17: $18.4 billion, up from $3.9 billion.
- 2017-18: $15.5 billion, up from $2.4 billion.
Real GDP growth
- 2015-16: 1.2 per cent, down from 1.3 per cent.
- 2016-17: 1.4 per cent, down from 2.0 per cent.
- 2017-18: 2.2 per cent, equal to 2.2 per cent.
Unemployment rate
- 2015-16: 6.9 per cent, up from 6.8 per cent.
- 2016-17: 7.1 per cent, up from 6.8 per cent.
- 2017-18: 6.9 per cent. up from 6.6 per cent.
Inflation
- 2015-16: 1.1 per cent, down from 1.2 per cent.
- 2016-17: 1.6 per cent, down from 2.0 per cent.
- 2017-18: 2.0 per cent, down from 2.1 per cent.
Average oil price (US$)
- 2015-16: $49, unchanged.
- 2016-17: $40, down from $54.
- 2017-18: $52, down from $64.
