Alberta election: Jim Prentice fights Tory ghosts, while opponents fight for face time
'Can we picture Brian Jean as premier? Can we picture Rachel Notley as premier?'
Jim Prentice is fighting to emerge from the shadow of Tory governments past.
His two main opponents are fighting their own battles, to step out the shadows and grab a share of the spotlight.
That's how a CBC political panel see things shaping up as the leaders prepare for the only televised debate of the campaign set for Thursday night.
With two weeks left before the May 5 election, the NDP and Wildrose face similar problems, said Mount Royal University political science professor Duane Bratt.
'Who else is the NDP?'
"People may know Rachel Notley quite well," Bratt told CBC's Mark Connolly Wednesday. "And they may know Brian Mason and a couple of the other MLAs. But who else is the NDP?
"Do people even know who Brian Jean is? Forget about who the rest of the Wildrose candidates are. These are tremendous edges that the PCs have had in the past, and they continue to have."
Panelist Doug Griffiths, a former PC cabinet minister who is not running for re-election, said with polls showing high numbers of undecided voters, Wildrose support appears to be weak.
Those who are angry at the governing Tories may still be vacillating about which alternative they want to back instead, he said.
"Brian Jean has some political experience. But most everyone else on that team has none. I think that's a big factor."
Notley doesn't have to worry about losing votes in the coming days, Griffiths said, because she has "incredible" support as a leader, and loyal support among those voters who have told pollsters they have no intention of changing their minds.
Bratt said people angry at the PC budget tabled last month, and at the legacy of former premier Alison Redford, will now ask themselves key questions.
'Can we picture Brian Jean as premier?'
"Do we want a change in government? Can we picture Brian Jean as premier? Can we picture Rachel Notley as premier? Those are the sorts of questions that are going to go on in the minds of people Thursday night."
Bratt said he thinks the Tories suffered their worst day on the campaign trail Tuesday, when former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk broke ranks and came out in favour of higher corporate taxes, and the Tories reversed themselves on tax credits for charitable donations.
Paula Simons, a columnist for the Edmonton Journal, said the worst moment for the Conservatives so far came on Monday when trustees from 19 school boards came together to denounce cuts to the education budget.
"I've never seen that, in my whole time as a political writer in Alberta," Simons said. "To see that kind of unanimity of voice, speaking out in criticism of the government. It was astonishing."
Griffiths pointed to another moment, when six Tory cabinet ministers held a news conference to criticize the Wildrose budget.
"I think there's maybe a bit of fear in the ranks," he said, referring to the Tories.
Simons said she stopped by Stephen Mandel's campaign headquarters recently to talk to the candidate about the school board protest. The office, she said, was filled with signs that should already be planted on supporters lawns.
"To me, that seem like a metaphor for things," she said. "I mean, the big blue machine has all the money and all the manpower, but they don't seem to have any ground game this election. At least, not in Edmonton."
Simons said a leader in Jean's shoes would normally be at a huge disadvantage.
'That should terrify the Tories'
"People don't know who Brian Jean is from a hole in the ground," she said. "He's been the leader of the party for less than three weeks. That should be a terrible disadvantage."
But instead, the fact that Jean is a "blank slate" has given the Wildrose the luxury of a leader no one has smeared.
"Think what a metric that is of how angry voters are at Jim Prentice and the conservative government," she said. "That they're willing to say that they will vote for — they don't even know who it is — somebody who isn't Prentice.
"And that should terrify the Tories."