Gather wisely: Risk of COVID-19 highest in Windsor-Essex, says biostatistician

People gathering in Windsor-Essex face the highest risk of encountering someone with COVID-19 compared to those in any other part of the province, according to a statistics expert. 

Ryan Imgrund, a biostatistician at Newmarket's Southlake Regional Health Centre, told CBC News Thursday that his statistics are based off of symptom onset data and the number of active cases in the region. Combined, the data helps him detect cases that are being missed and future cases that will arise. 

With this information, Imgrund says that in any given gathering of 10 people in Windsor-Essex, there's a 6.6 per cent chance of encountering someone with COVID-19 — though that doesn't guarantee you would contract it.

And the risk only increases as the size of that gathering grows, he said.  

"What's important to know is your own risk, one of the things which I keep in mind is time, place, people, space," Imgrund said, adding that by being mindful of the amount of time you spend around people, and keeping your distance, you can "control your own risk." 

"It takes everybody playing ball to bring those numbers down. We can't have certain cohorts acting out of control, cause when that happens we see cases rise," he said.

He noted that the high case count in Windsor-Essex is likely due to the fact that more testing is being done, which in turn exposes more cases. Imgrund applauds rigorous testing in the region, and for its targeted testing on vulnerable groups. 

Currently, Imgrund said the rate at which COVID-19 is reproducing in Windsor is 1.3 —  meaning for every person that has the disease, they are passing it on to another 1.3 people. Ideally, Imgrund said that value needs to drop to 0.7. At that point, the area will see a decline in cases.

Stuck in Stage 2

The steady increase in positive cases of COVID-19 in Windsor-Essex has some Windsorites concerned, including June Laforet, who wants to see an end to the disease as soon as possible.

The Windsor-Essex County Health Unit reported 27 new COVID-19 cases for the region on Wednesday.

Of the new cases, 14 people contracted the virus from community spread, eight are farm workers, one person is a local health-care worker, and four cases are under investigation.

Laforet said she's upset to see how COVID-19 has changed the way she lives, but is perfectly happy to stay home and keep busy if it will help stop the spread of the disease.  

"I get so depressed and sad because you can't do anything you used to, but when you think of the consequences, at least you can afford to be sad and healthy," she said.

Yet, Laforet said she's noticed other people in the community aren't doing their part.

"More and more people aren't doing what they're supposed to and more and more people are going to get sick, and I think it's so terrible," she said.

"I don't want to go out anymore. I'm quite content to stay home ... until it gets more under control. I don't know how long that's going to be, but ... I knit and I keep myself busy."

The increase in case numbers has made Windsor resident Besnik Osmenha more cautious when he goes out.

He said he thought COVID-19 would only last a few months, but doesn't think everyone has been following the rules implemented by the government.

"Most people are doing it, but even the small minority, if they don't, that's why we're still struggling," he said.  

Local student Tyler Sims, 15, said he's concerned about the growing number of positive cases because he wants to go back to school.

"The online learning is affecting all of our grades," he said. "My grades dropped."

But he said the risk of contracting the disease hasn't stopped him and other young people from going out.

"I don't care myself as much either because I'm getting bored. I want to do stuff with my friends," he said. "I'm going into Grade 10. I want to enjoy [my] summer. So, it's just annoying."

Unlike Laforet, who wants the city to stay in Stage 2 of reopening, Brenda Jones, the owner of Cooleez Ice Cream Parlour — who interacts with many people at her shop each day — isn't concerned and thinks the city is staying safe.

"I think we're being very careful here in Windsor. We're following the rules," she said, adding that she's seen people keep their distance and wearing masks.

She said Windsor is ready to take the next step and wants the city to move to Stage 3 of reopening, which Chatham-Kent did last Friday. But, the municipality has also seen an increase in positive cases since moving to the next stage. 

COVID-19 in Chatham-Kent

Chatham-Kent's health unit reported nine new cases of COVID-19 on Wednesday. The area has had 197 total cases — 163 people have recovered.

Laforet said she is urging everyone to look out for each other in the community by following the safety measures put in place.

"Just respect each other and just pray to God it comes to an end soon," she said. "Although, I don't see that happening."