Former NDP strongholds flip as PC candidates claim 2 Windsor-Essex ridings

Two Windsor-Essex ridings turned blue with the election of Progressive Conservative candidates, ending a decades-long drought for the part in the southwestern Ontario region.

Windsor-Tecumseh and Essex were NDP strongholds, but that changed after Thursday's Ontario election — a historic moment for the PCs, who earned a second majority government. 

In Windsor-Tecumseh, PC candidate Andrew Dowie took 46 per cent of the votes, and in Essex, Anthony Leardi took 51 per cent. Both of these ridings have not voted in PC candidates for over six decades, and each region was most recently represented by an NDP MPP — both incumbents did not run for re-election. 

"Tonight is a very historic moment; it's a historic turning point," Leardi told CBC News on Thursday after his projected win. 

Lydia Milijan, a University of Windsor political science professor, told CBC Radio's Windsor Morning Friday that the flip is a big deal. 

"I think a lot of people didn't expect the result in Windsor — to have a really strong NDP riding split to Progressive Conservative was quite dramatic." 

Miljan said she had expected that flip to happen in Essex, but not in the Windsor-Tecumseh riding. 

Leardi takes the Essex seat over from the NDP's Taras Natyshak, who announced in December that he would not run in the 2022 election after serving in the riding since 2011.

In Windsor-Tecumseh, NDP MPP Percy Hatfield held the seat for nearly a decade, having been elected in 2013. Last year, Hatfield announced he would not seek re-election this time around. 

"I'm feeling on top of the world," Dowie told reporters after his projected win in Windsor-Tecumseh. "Whatever the result was tonight, I was so happy." 

Windsor West remained NDP and re-elected Lisa Gretzky, who has held the seat since 2014. After the projected win, Gretzky gave reporters her take on the NDP's loss of seats. 

"I know that we've run a really great campaign provincially, so I don't think we've done anything wrong, I think that people are still looking to us to now be the conscience of the government to do what we've been doing, which is to hold the government to account for the cuts that they've been making," she said. 

In the months leading up to the election, the PCs were pushing to gain voters in the southwestern Ontario region by making several high-profile auto announcements.

Miljan points to a huge announcement, in relation to the city's new electric vehicle battery plant, that PC Leader Doug Ford touted in the region just before the campaign kicked off. She said the time spent in Windsor-Essex may have made a difference. 

"And they got the endorsement of the mayor, and I think all of that factored into the conservatives winning that riding and just about every riding in the province," she said, adding the PCs also got a lot of endorsements historically given to the NDP. 

The PCs have been positioning themselves as the party of the working class or middle class, eating into the NDP's base, said Miljan. 

But the blue takeover could be beneficial to the region, she said. 

"Now, we're back to a situation where we have representation in the government," said Miljan. "It's been a long time since that has been the case, but now we do have a voice at the table."

Miljan said while politicians say it doesn't matter if a local representative is one of the party in power, she believes otherwise in that more attention will be paid to the region represented by that party. 

Trend of low voter turnout continues

Windsor West and Windsor-Tecumseh had some of the lowest turnouts in the 2018 provincial election, and the trend continued for this year's vote.

With 100 per cent of polls reporting, 40.3 per cent of the 95,440 eligible voters in Windsor-Tecumseh cast a ballot, compared with 47.8 per cent in the last election, according to unofficial results.

In Windsor West, unofficial results pegged turnout at 33.32 per cent of the 95,436 registered voters. In 2018, 43.3 per cent of those eligible cast a ballot, the lowest of any riding in Ontario.

In Essex, 47 per cent of the area's 102,768 voters cast ballots, compared to 56 per cent in 2018. 

Gemma Grey-Hall, who was running for the NDP in Windsor-Tecumseh, told CBC News after the election that the low turnout is a reminder about the importance of education around these democratic procedures.  

"I think it's important that people know that they can make their voice heard through the ballot box," she said.

"When you're looking at normally less than 40 per cent voter turnout, you start to think that people are disengaged and you wonder why."