As Trump tariffs loom — again — Windsor-Essex business leaders brace for impact

Business leaders in Windsor-Essex are bracing for painful economic fallout if U.S. President Donald Trump goes through with 25 per cent tariffs on all Canadian goods this week. 

The wide-reaching tariffs, which Trump said Monday were set to hit Canada and Mexico on Tuesday, would be particularly painful for southwestern Ontario's large automotive, manufacturing, and agricultural industries because of their reliance on cross-border trade. 

"If this does actually come into force tomorrow globally across all goods, needless to say its going to be a challenging time in Windsor-Essex — and on the U.S. side of the border," said Ryan Donally, head of the Windsor-Essex Regional Chamber of Commerce.

Justin Falconer, CEO at Workforce WindsorEssex, said the tariffs would have "a lasting impact" on the region, as more than 20 per cent of the local workforce works in manufacturing — which is more than twice the national average. 

"So when you look at the impacts of tariffs on a community like Windsor-Essex, it's a lot greater than it would be in other communities," Falconer said.

Like Donally, Falconer underlined that a trade war would hurt U.S. consumers and businesses as well — something Canadian officials have sought to communicate to Washington since Trump began threatening tariffs earlier this year. 

Windsor, Canada's automotive capital, would be especially hard-hit by the tariffs because of the deeply integrated supply chain, experts have said. 

"By putting in place a tariff of this scope, it will put extreme stress on the supply chain," said Brian Kingston, head of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association.

"Automakers don't have other suppliers that they can find overnight to bring those components in, so the result is potential stoppages in production. And of course, tariffs are taxes, so prices will go up for vehicles for not just Americans, but Canadians and Mexicans."

Canada will retaliate immediately against Trump tariffs, says minister

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In the final hours before Canada is hit with 25 per cent tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, International Trade Minister Mary Ng says Ottawa will 'work right up until deadline' to prevent the tariffs from being enacted. But, as Trump says there's 'no room' left for Canada to avoid the blanket tariffs, Ng says Canada's response will be 'impactful,' 'decisive' and 'proportional.'

One hurdle facing local businesses is a lack of clarity on the situation — how long the tariffs could last, how exactly governments in Canada would respond, and whether Trump will actually go through with it, for instance.  

"You know what the crazy thing is? Even though he said it's happening tomorrow, I still don't know if it'll happen tomorrow," Donally said. "It seems as though that with any tweet, with any emotion that he decides that he wants to have, any way the wind's going to blow could change this."

Trump previously delayed implementation of the tariffs after initial successful negotiations with Mexican and Canadian counterparts.

"In this case, without having any certainty on anything, it is very very difficult for businesses to weather that storm," Donally said.

If Trump goes through with it this time, "certainly it's going to have a huge unwanted effect in our local community," Falconer said, noting that 96 per cent of all the region's exports are U.S.-bound. 

"So our companies will be looking for new customers and new buyers for their products potentially," he said. "But, you know, we don't want that to happen. What we want is a stronger Canada-U.S. relationship, one that's been built over decades, and if not centuries. So these tariffs really are unwanted."

Donally said the Chamber has encouraged local businesses to try to be as flexible and creative as possible in figuring out new ways to operate. 

'But beyond that […] it's really hard to message right now," he said

"From a personal perspective, it's heavy, right?" he said, adding that regardless of the work the Chamber has done alongside Invest WindsorEssex as part of a local trade task force, he doesn't face the same daunting prospects as local business owners. 

"But what I can say is that the folks around my table, with Invest WindsorEssex, we're fighting as much as we possibly can, we're spending as many hours as we possibly can to make sure that the voice of Windsor-Essex businesses in our community is being well-represented at the highest levels and across the world. 

"We'll continue to do that as long as it takes."