Windsor

Hoping to see party leaders in your town? Only if they have something to gain

There are a lot of factors that go into deciding where a leader will spend his or her time on the campaign trail.

Extra-long campaign still not enough time for a leader to visit every city

The federal party leaders have to use their time wisely on the campaign trail, even when the election is still nearly two months away. (Reuters)

Even in the longest federal election campaign in recent history, party leaders don't have time to waste.

As a result, you shouldn't expect to see them in your town unless there's a good reason for them to be there.

Cheryl Collier, an associate professor in the University of Windsor's department of political science, said every election stop that a leader makes has a purpose in mind.

A leader's visit could relate to a pledge a party intends to make, or it could occur because a particular riding is seen to be in play. But they are all deliberate.

"They have to be strategic," Collier told CBC News in a telephone interview.

Laure Paquette, an associate professor in the department of political science at Lakehead University, agrees that it comes down to what the party can get out of an appearance.

"If they hold a seat and it's not safe, or if there's a chance to gain the seat, that's when they bring the leaders in because the parties fondly imagine that every leader automatically has a big coattail and will help the incumbent," Paquette said in a recent telephone interview.

"That's not always true. Sometimes the leaders are very unpopular, or less popular than their party, but generally speaking, it's one of those two scenarios."

But the parties shouldn't count on a leader's presence driving voters' decisions, Collier said.

"I don't know how many voters actually are going to vote based on the fact the leader came to the riding," she said.

Lots of advance work

Garry Aldridge, a communications expert who has worked on high-profile campaigns at both the federal and provincial levels, said the planning for these leaders' tours starts early.

"I would think at least six months or so, prior to the dropping of the writ, the parties would have been involved in sketching out where they thought their leader should be going during the course of the campaign," he said in a telephone interview from Regina.

The key thing once the campaign gets started is for the message to be rolled out in a smooth fashion along with the campaign stops.

"One of the things that you can't do with a leader's tour is have an event and have an announcement that seems out of place as to where you make the announcement," Aldridge said.

"It doesn't make a lot of sense to be talking about the housing market and the hot housing market in a New Brunswick or a Prince Edward Island, as opposed to a Vancouver and Toronto and other major cities."

Aldridge said the leaders generally chart a more wide-ranging path in the early part of the campaign, before shifting to more strategic choices later in the campaign.

With such a long way to go before election day, Aldridge said the parties may seek to reboot their campaigns, likely around Labour Day.

Expect visits to Toronto

In general, Paquette said the leaders will tend to put in more time in places where they can canvass more seats.

"They're going to campaign often and long in seat-rich regions," said Paquette.

Collier said voters can thus expect to see the leaders spending time in the Greater Toronto Area a number of times over the course of the campaign. Some parties may see greater strategic value in some regions than others depending on their prospects, she said.

But that doesn't mean that the leaders won't make appearances in places like Windsor-Essex, where just three ridings are located.

Four weeks into the campaign, none of the leaders has made an appearance in Windsor, Ont.

But New Democrat Leader Tom Mulcair toured this part of the province shortly before Conservative Leader Stephen Harper formally called the election.

Both Harper and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau have made visits to Windsor this year, but months ahead of the campaign.

In such a long campaign, Paquette said it shouldn't matter so much that a leader was here before the writs were issued. But where they are in a couple of weeks will be notable.

"What matters is after Labour Day, when the crunch comes, then you see where they are parcelling out their time, that's when you're going to know the most clearly which ridings they are trying to protect or which ridings they are trying to gain," she said.

Collier said the polling will guide their decisions, particularly as it provides a clearer picture of what is happening further into the campaign.