'Looming' floods are a 'grave concern,' as ERCA issues long-term flood watch

The Essex Region Conservation Authority has issued a long-term flood watch for the region. 

It's the longest flood watch on record for ERCA — until October 1, unless superseded by a flood warning, the watch will remain in effect. 

"As it stands, our levels still exceed record highs," said Tim Byrne, watershed management director for ERCA. "In the last two-and-a-half weeks, we've seen it shift to an almost constant level six inches higher than the starting point that we use for the lake to generate our flood levels."

According to Byrne, the models ERCA typically uses to issue flood advisories are below the current water levels.

"That is a grave concern," said Byrne. 

The watch in place is what Byrne called a "lake flood watch" and is a direct result of historic levels. 

"We're still having to watch the potential for rainfall events that would cause river in-flooding," said Byrne. "With lakes as high as they are right now, all our lower reaches and major waterways are even more at risk."

The longest watch in place before now was for a one-month period, also in 2019. Byrne said ERCA will reassess what to do next at the end of September. 

A flood is 'looming'

ERCA opted for the two-month long watch because it "makes no sense" to assume an advisory can be issued quickly enough should a flood be coming soon. 

"Basically a flood is looming on any given day," said Byrne. "A breath of wind will bring it on shore. We have water over beach community roads in many, if not most, municipalities, including Windsor."

Byrne said because the lake levels are so high, the threat of a flood extends further inland — and that emergency response perspectives are shifting from 'What can we do' to 'How will we respond?'

"The lake levels are so high, at this point everyone is into planning for a response to an event."