'Definitely headed in the wrong direction:' Health unit warns as Windsor-Essex COVID-19 cases rise

The local health unit is warning that Windsor-Essex is headed in the wrong direction and needs to act fast to reverse the rising trend of COVID-19 cases in the region. 

The region has seen 67 new cases over the last four days — more than half the total number of active cases in the region. Currently there are 113 active cases. 

"With this pace right now, we are definitely headed in the wrong direction ," said the Windsor-Essex County Health Unit's medical officer of health Dr. Wajid Ahmed. 

This spike is related to several Halloween-related social gatherings that the health unit said it is investigating. 

"People do not maintain physical distancing as much as they think and people do not follow all of those guidelines that we always talk about," he said.

"Who doesn't want those gatherings? Who doesn't want to socialize? But this is a different time, this is a different year." 

One of the gatherings has already been linked to the University of Windsor, where the school said in a news release that an "unauthorized Halloween gathering" is under investigation. 

Windsorites who spoke to CBC News said they are concerned about the growing numbers, but some also expressed optimism that the region could turn things around.

"I think the kids are crazy," said Kathleen Peltier. "They need to stay home and social distance so that we can all be safe."

"I think as long as they [the health unit] keep strong with the warnings and keep telling people, and we see the numbers, the facts are there, I think people will respond," said Therese McCloskey.

The University of Windsor also reported four cases in Faculty of Nursing students and the St. Clair College also reported a positive case Sunday. 

During the health unit's daily briefing Monday, 20 new cases were reported. Of these, 13 are close contacts of a confirmed case, two are travel-related outside of North America and five are being investigated. 

There are four long-term care and retirement homes under outbreak: 

• Berkshire Care Center in Windsor has two staff cases. 
• Riverside Place in Windsor has two staff cases. 
• Lifetimes on Riverside has four resident cases and four staff cases. 
• Iller Lodge in Essex has four resident cases and one staff case. 

Over the weekend, the health unit reported 32 new COVID-19 cases for Saturday and Sunday. Of these, 19 are still under investigation. 

Pandemic status stays at medium/orange 

As for if the case increase will change the region's pandemic status before the week is up, Ahmed said that is something his team is looking into. 

The public health unit is actively monitoring the situation and will update "if needed," he added, noting that the risk level is creeping up to the "red" level. 

 Ahmed said it's important to remember what these cases look like for our region. 

What we know, he said, is that 10 per cent of our cases have needed hospitalization and three per cent of people die. 

With 100 cases in a week that would mean that 10 would go to hospital and three would die. 

"Think about where we are heading and what could happen, these are the realities of our region and when things are good people are probably not thinking and paying attention," Ahmed said. "Before you get to the point where it's unmanageable, we have to take action now to prevent that from happening ...We need to act right now, it's already too late but we still have time, we can change it." 

He then made a plea for the region to act quickly.

"So please act now to change the course where we are heading right now," he said. 

In Ontario's COVID-19 response framework, Windsor-Essex is falls under the green or "prevent" status — the lowest level, which means the provincial government is not considering new restrictions or enforcement measures. 

But that may not last.

Ryan Imgrund, a Newmarket-based biostatstician, says that Windsor's recent COVID-19 numbers mean the region could get moved into the yellow "protect" status.

"Given the numbers, you can probably say there's a high likelihood that Windsor will be moved to the protect zone the coming Friday."

Staff member in isolation at Leamington elementary school

A staff member from St. Louis Catholic Elementary School in Leamington is self-isolating for the next two weeks due to a high risk exposure to COVID-19, according to a news release from the Windsor Essex Catholic District School Board. 

The health unit told the board that only the staff member has to isolate and that students can continue attending school. The board says it has reached out to families on Sunday.