Toronto's left sees political opportunity with Mayor John Tory poised to resign

It's been more than 16 years since a left-of-centre candidate won a mayoral election in Toronto, but political organizers on that side of the spectrum believe the circumstances are ripe for a progressive to get into the mayor's chair.

Mayor John Tory intends to stay in his post at least through Wednesday's budget meeting at city council, but has said he will resign over what he called a lapse in judgment, a relationship with one of his staff members. 

This opens up the prospect of an election for mayor at a yet-to-be-determined date in the coming months. 

According to multiple sources, left-of-centre candidates being asked to consider running include: 

• Mike Layton, a three-term city councillor from 2010 to 2022 and son of the late Jack Layton, who served as a Toronto councillor and federal NDP leader 

• Kristyn Wong-Tam, also a three-term city councillor who went on to win the riding of Toronto Centre for the NDP in the 2022 provincial election 

• Bhutila Karpoche, the New Democrat MPP for Parkdale-High Park since 2018  

The runner-up to Tory in October's election, Gil Penalosa, says he intends to run. Other potential mayoral candidates who haven't ruled out running include Beaches-East York councillor Brad Bradford, Toronto-St Paul's councillor Josh Matlow and the former councillor for Davenport, Ana Bailão. 

Tory's anticipated departure is "a huge opportunity for the city and for progressives in Toronto to elect a progressive mayor," said Michal Hay, executive director of Progress Toronto, a not-for-profit advocacy group focused on municipal issues. 

"After more than a decade of conservatives running things at city hall, it's very clear that has not been working for Toronto," said Hay in an interview. 

"Housing is more unaffordable, transit service is still being cut," she said. "A lot of people have been talking about how Toronto is a city in disrepair and decline." 

David Miller, the only progressive candidate to win a mayoral election in Toronto in the 25 years since the megacity amalgamation, believes there are parallels between the state of the city now and the situation when he was first elected, in 2003. 

"People at that time were very unhappy with the level of city services," said Miller in an interview with CBC Toronto. 

Now in 2023, city services are "manifestly in decline," Miller said, pointing to what he described as the housing crisis, overflowing trash bins, streets in disrepair, parks in poor condition and the state of the TTC.

"If you listen to the people, they're very concerned about basic services," he said. "I think that gives an opportunity to somebody who can speak to what the problem is, why this is happening and how to fix it." 

In the last four mayoral elections since Rob Ford's victory in 2010, progressive candidates have struggled to attract voters in the outer suburbs. 

Political strategists say for someone from the left of the spectrum to become mayor, they must have appeal beyond the city's downtown core. 

Making people's lives better 'resonates across city,' Miller says

Miller's victories in 2003 and 2006 came with significant support in Scarborough and Etobicoke. 

"In my experience, a message about ensuring there are excellent public services that are investing in neighbourhoods and people and youth and transportation and making people's everyday lives better and easier is a message that resonates across the city," said Miller. 

Kim Wright, who has worked on municipal political campaigns in Toronto for more than 20 years, says she is hearing about the need for city building from across the political spectrum. 

"Slashing and burning city services or cutting red tape, all of those slogans aren't actually going to help with the major issues that are facing Toronto right now," said Wright, principal of Wright Strategies, a public affairs firm.

Wright says the unexpected nature of the looming election poses some challenges for would-be candidates. 

"They're going to have to showcase very quickly that they have a vision for Toronto, that they can raise the money, they can raise the resources and that they can win," she said.

Although no one carries a political party banner in Toronto's mayoral race, most high-profile candidates have links to provincial or federal parties, or rely on campaign organizers who've worked in party backrooms. 

Conservative political sources in Toronto told CBC News they are aiming to field just one centre-right candidate to avoid vote splitting that could enable a left-of-centre politician to become mayor. 

From the other side of the spectrum, a similar strategy is in the works. 

"We really do need to come together to have a unified progressive voice running in this election," said Hay, who ran Jagmeet Singh's winning campaign for the federal NDP leadership and served on Mike Layton's city hall staff for six years. 

Neither Layton nor Wong-Tam have stated anything publicly about the possibility of becoming a candidate for mayor. 

Karpoche told CBC News on the weekend that people are encouraging her to consider running, but that she hasn't made any decisions. 

Even though Tory won last fall's mayoral race with more than 60 per cent of the vote, political organizers believe there's some evidence in the municipal election results of an appetite for a progressive mayor around the city.

They point to Penalosa attracting nearly 100,000 votes despite never having held elected office, in a race against a two-term incumbent. 

They also take heart from how left-of-centre council candidates fared outside the downtown core, particularly Amber Morley's win in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. 

Miller also argues that recent moves by Premier Doug Ford's government — particularly giving "strong mayor" powers to pass key policies with the support of just one-third of council — are fuelling demand for change at Toronto city hall. 

"For me the question is, will there be a really good, strong candidate who represents the future, serving the needs of all Torontonians and ensuring no one is left behind and investing in the public services and infrastructure we need."