March comes in like a lion, but then what?
Predicting the weather using folklore can be fun, as long as you don't mind being wrong - a lot
If March comes in like a lion, it will go out like a lamb.
The first part of that old saying might prove an accurate description this first day of the month, as a winter storm roars across much of southern Ontario. But does that mean we should expect the second half of the saying to come to pass?
David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada, said the month could end like a lion as well. Or it could roar all month. Or not!
He said weather idioms like this are obvious folklore, without many facts to back them up. But not all weather sayings are untruthful.
He said there are three categories of weather sayings.
First, the ones that predict the short term, as in the next 12-24 hours.
One such example of a short-term forecasting is "red skies at night, sailor's delight." That one has been around for 2,000 years, used by mariners to figure out what the next day's voyage will be like. It has to do with whether there are prevailing winds that push clouds and weather systems out of the way to let the sunshine through.
He said there is a strand of truth to it.
The second type of weather sayings are the ones that typically try to forecast for whole season.
For instance, "When squirrels early start to hoard, winter will pierce us like sword." Phillips said when squirrels hoard more nuts, they are simply hoarding more nuts.
A third type of weather folklore is to do with dates or anniversaries. Such as: white Christmas means a green Easter. These are simply not true.
As for the way March is going to play out, there is little statistical analysis to prove that the month that starts with lots of bad weather will end pleasantly. In a small sample of 10 years, six times March came in quietly and departed the same way. It roared in and roared out only once. It fit the lore a total of three times.
The saying persists in part because it's got that catchy alliteration between "lion" and "lamb," but also because of people's memories. The month starts close to the dead of winter, but ends close to spring.
Mostly, Phillips said, March tends to be a windy month.
Despite their inaccuracy, the climate scientist doesn't mind the folklore around weather predictions.
Even as the groundhog is often wrong and April showers don't always mean May flowers, Phillips said there is value in remembering these little ditties. He said anything that gets people interested and paying attention to the weather is good, and it teaches young people to sniff the air or look at the clouds.