Ontario's carbon emissions rose only slightly in 2021 and pandemic-driven shifts could be why

Ontario's greenhouse gas emissions rose only slightly in 2021, following a steep drop in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to new figures published Friday.

The figures come from the annual national inventory of emissions, which reveals sources of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases across all provinces and all sectors, including industry, transportation and buildings.    

The province produced 150.6 megatonnes of carbon emissions in 2021, up just 2.7 per cent from 2020, a year in which emissions were far lower than at any time in the three decades since records were kept. 

Most notably, Ontario's 2021 emissions did not rebound back to pre-pandemic levels, giving environmental advocates some hope of progress in the fight against climate change. The emissions reported in 2021 are nearly eight per cent lower than in 2019 .   

"The pandemic was a huge disruptor to our economy, to our everyday life, how we get to work," said Carolyn Kim, senior director of communities and decarbonization for the Pembina Institute, a clean energy think-tank. 

"Hopefully we take this learning moment to think about how we sustain this as a longer-term trend," Kim said in an interview. 

Premier Doug Ford's government is promising that by 2030, Ontario's greenhouse gas emissions will be 30 per cent lower than their 2005 levels. That's the target Canada agreed to under the terms of the Paris Agreement — and for the province, it means bringing down annual emissions to 144 megatonnes. 

While the 2021 emissions figures might suggest Ontario doesn't have very far to go, expected growth in both population and demand for energy must be factored in.  

For Ontario to reach its 2030 target, Kim said it will be pivotal to bring down emissions from homes and commercial buildings — especially from heating them — and reduce the use of fossil fuels in generating electricity.

"Ontario needs to protect its clean electricity advantage," she said. "For many years, we've had a very clean grid." 

Much of Ontario's reduction in emissions in the previous decade was thanks to eliminating coal from the province's electricity system.

Environment Minister David Piccini acknowledged that in a statement. 

Ontario "is responsible for almost all of Canada's progress towards its Paris Agreement goal. This achievement is possible because of the work of successive governments," Piccini said in the statement provided to CBC News.

"Our government will continue to fight climate change by building the green infrastructure that Ontario needs, creating the conditions for clean jobs for future generations and working in partnership with industry to decarbonize," Piccini said  

After Ford's Progressive Conservatives took office, Ontario's emissions rose in 2018 and 2019, reversing a decade-long downward trend. 

Last year, the government revised its plan for how to hit the 2030 target.

The new plan shows nearly all of its expected emission reductions will come from three sources: stricter emissions standards for heavy industry, the steel industry's plans to switch from coal-fired to electric-powered furnaces and greater renewable content in gasoline. 

"Climate action really is going to create a lot of benefits, and it's important to make sure that the government follows through," said Ekaterina Tzekova, director of research and innovation for The Atmospheric Fund, an agency that invests in low-carbon projects for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. 

The new figures show that the transportation sector — responsible for one-third of Ontario's total emissions — accounts for nearly three-quarters of Ontario's emission reductions since 2019. 

That suggests that pandemic-driven shifts in commuting patterns, such as working from home and more virtual meetings, are at the heart of the decline.  

One caveat to the figures is that 2021 was far from a back-to-normal year in Ontario: stay-at-home orders were imposed at points during the winter and spring, and the province's schools were online for much of the first half of the year.

The national report also lists the emissions from every major industrial facility in the country.

In Ontario, steel plants are the three biggest emitters. The three steel plants account for as much greenhouse gas production as the 12 next-biggest emitters combined, which include refineries, cement plants and electricity generating stations.