Soaring tax revenues will push Ontario back into black ahead of schedule, 2023 budget projects

Surging revenues will help Ontario get back to black years earlier than previously projected, the province said in its 2023 budget — a fiscal outlook that includes historically high spending and tax relief for businesses, but little in the way of new affordability measures for individuals.

Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy tabled the government's $204.7-billion budget Thursday, saying it is "rooted in strong fundamentals" and features "real action ... to not only face the current turbulence we see in the global economy, but emerge from it stronger than ever."

It comes amid nearly unprecedented economic circumstances for Ontario: above-target inflation, high interest rates, a generational labour crunch and a possible recession. At the same time, the province is seeing record-high revenues and a historically low unemployment rate.

The 187-page document forecasts that Ontario could run a modest $200 million surplus in 2024-2025, getting back to balance three years earlier than estimated in last year's budget. That surplus could increase to $4.4 billion by the following year. In this upcoming fiscal year, the province expects a $1.3 billion deficit — a figure roughly 12 times lower than that cited last April.

Substantial revisions to the balance sheet were driven in part by skyrocketing revenue projections, an official with the Ministry of Finance said at a technical briefing for the media.

The ministry is forecasting roughly $200 billion in revenue this year, $20.6 billion more than was forecast in last year's budget and some $4.4 billion higher than was estimated in third-quarter finances released just last month. By 2025-2026, the last year covered by today's budget, total revenue is expected to reach $226 billion.

The official said the drastic increases over previous outlooks were due to inflation; higher taxation revenues, mostly via personal and corporate income tax; larger federal transfers; and jumps in other non-tax revenues, especially from colleges as more international students return to Canada.

But those windfalls aren't leading to new affordability goodies at a time of high inflation, aside from boosting a program for low-income seniors.

Bethlenfalvy said the government didn't wait for the budget to introduce measures such as a gas tax cut, low-income tax credit and increase to disability support payments.

"We're doing a bunch of things," he told reporters at a news conference before he introduced the budget. "It's not just one and done."

NDP Leader Marit Stiles said Ontarians are struggling to keep up with the rising cost of groceries, rent and gas and that this budget fails to meet the moment.

"This budget offers no relief for everyday Ontarians. Everyone in Ontario deserves a strong future. Everyone in Ontario deserves to have hope," she said.

Meanwhile, capital plan spending also jumped significantly, with $184.4 billion set aside for major infrastructure projects like building highways, hospitals and schools over the next decade. That's nearly $25 billion more than was earmarked in the last budget.

$3.9B contingency fund

The Treasury Board expects to hold some $3.9 billion in a contingency fund this year, which could be used for any unexpected expenses. A possible example is the ongoing court battle over Bill 124, which capped public sector wage increases at one per cent for three years. If it loses an appeal to the Supreme Court, the province could be faced with covering years of back pay for some public employees.

Similarly, the province's reserve fund is expected to hold about $1 billion in 2023-2024, before increasing to $2 billion the following year and $4 billion after that.

Opposition parties have often criticized Premier Doug Ford for sitting on large reserve and contingency funds, given the health-care staffing crisis.

New health-care funding

The government expects to spend $81 billion on the health-care sector this fiscal year, up from nearly $75 billion in 2022-2023, including more than $500 million to improve home care and $72 million in the upcoming year to expand publicly-funded procedures at private clinics.

It has also earmarked an additional $425 million over three years for mental health and addictions services, including to fund community programs, youth wellness hubs, and support children and youth with eating disorders.

The health-care sector, like many across the province, has seen labour shortages become particularly acute over the past year, with hospitals pointing to a lack of nurses as the reason for temporary emergency room closures.

The budget puts $200 million toward addressing immediate staffing shortages including a program that sees health-care students work in hospitals to gain experience as well as a supervised practice experience program for internationally educated nurses.

Ontario also plans to spend $80 million over three years to shore up future health-care staffing by increasing post-secondary nursing program enrolment. As well, the province is adding 154 post-graduate medical training spots and 100 seats for medical undergraduates.

Tax breaks for businesses

In recent days, Bethlenfalvy said the budget would largely be a plan to foster business and create jobs in order to meet the government's lofty infrastructure goals, including building 1.5 million more homes by 2031.

That target would require roughly 150,000 new homes to be built each year since it was introduced. But housing start projections actually fell in this year's budget to a pace that, if continued, would see just over half of those homes actually completed.

The finance ministry official said that forecast, which is based on private sector data, doesn't include future policies the government could use to increase housing starts. The official also pointed to a slew of recent announcements aimed at getting more young people into skilled trades, which could help the province meet its goal.

"We're not going to relent in our ambition to get housing built across the province," Bethlenfalvy told reporters at a news conference before he introduced the budget.

The budget also includes significant tax breaks for businesses.

Bethlenfalvy previously announced a new corporate income tax credit up to $2 million annually that could be used by Canadian-controlled private companies with a permanent location in Ontario on qualifying investments in buildings, machinery and equipment.

The province has also proposed to extend the phase-out range for the small business corporate tax rate from $10 million to $50 million of taxable capital. Currently, the range tops out at $15 million. Some eligible companies would save more than $36,000 per year in taxes, the government said.

According to the finance ministry, today's budget includes additional tax relief for businesses to the tune of $8 billion, delivered through a variety of measures, like corporate and property tax relief and lower payroll costs.

What's not in the budget

There were several notable omissions from this year's budget. 

Aside from expanding eligibility for the Guaranteed Annual Income System payment for low-income seniors and indexing it to inflation, there were no new affordability measures aimed at individual taxpayers. That said, a 5.7-cent gas tax cut introduced last July will remain in place until year's end.

Meanwhile, no money has specifically been earmarked for municipalities who say they will lose out tax revenue due to Bill 23, which aims to streamline the development process for homes.

School boards, such as the Toronto District School Board, that have requested the province help them cover pandemic-related operational costs will also see no help from this budget.