Ont. economic report expected to show higher deficit

Ontarians will learn the state of the province's finances on Thursday afternoon when the Liberal government releases its fall economic update.

At 1:15 p.m. ET, Finance Minister Dwight Duncan is expected to reveal an even higher provincial deficit than the revised forecast of $18.5 billion for the period ending March 31, 2010, economic forecasters said.

In March, the government projected a deficit of $14.1 billion for 2009-2010 and in June revised its estimate to $18.5 billion. On Tuesday, TD economists said they're predicting a provincial deficit in the range of $20 billion to $22 billion.

"The purpose of tomorrow is just to ensure that everybody understands the ground on which we're working, where we find ourselves at this point in time, how much higher the deficit is," Premier Dalton McGuinty said.

Last week, government officials told CBC News that Duncan's statement will not announce major cuts to spending. If those are to come, they won't appear until the budget next spring, the officials said.

'We could very well be in for a long, slow grind before we achieve true economic recovery.' —Dwight Duncan, finance minister

But in a speech to Toronto's business community on Wednesday, Duncan said, "We are not out of the woods yet and before we see a full return to strong growth, there is much hard work to be done.

"We could very well be in for a long, slow grind before we achieve true economic recovery."

Duncan said the government will undertake a review of service delivery to ensure every dollar is spent effectively, but he declined to specify what cuts such a review may yield.

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath, who is expecting the update to include cuts to services, said Wednesday the government should come clean about its intentions before the March budget.

"They've already cut Children's Aid Societies. They're already cutting some of the most important programs to get people back to work, so already we're seeing what that looks like, and already it's not looking very positive," Horwath said.

Hospitals shouldn't expect more funding: premier

McGuinty and Duncan have both been warning about difficult choices ahead.

The premier has promised not to raise taxes, and has pledged he will protect hospitals and schools.

But last week, McGuinty warned hospitals that while he'll try to help them out of their current shortfalls, they shouldn't expect as much funding as in the past.

He had a similar message for the Children's Aid Society a day later, when the agency warned it was facing a $67-million shortfall and called on the government for help.

That same day, it was revealed that the province was suspending the Ontario Self-Employment Benefit program, which provides financial assistance to laid-off workers looking to start their own business.

The fall economic update is not expected to have any changes to the plan to balance the budget by 2015.

Progressive Conservative MPP Peter Shurman said there's only one way to balance the budget.

"You've got cuts to make. You've got some serious work to do."