Emissions in the GTA and Hamilton are rising, agency reports

Carbon emissions rose by one million tonnes in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) last year, according to a new report from a regional climate agency.

That amounts to a two per cent increase from the previous year, according to The Atmospheric Fund — when it says the region should be seeing an 11 per cent decrease in emissions if it's to hit its 2030 targets.

After three years of steady climbing, emission levels are surpassing pre-pandemic levels, said Bryan Purcell, the non-profit's vice president of policy and programs.

"We're running out of time to hit our climate targets, especially for 2030," he told CBC Toronto in an interview. 

Many cities across the GTHA, in conjunction with the federal government, have goals to reach net-zero emissions in the upcoming decades, but Purcell says those targets are getting harder and harder to achieve without a stringent plan that moves away from fossil fuels.

"Incremental approaches simply won't be sufficient, and we need to step up the ambition and scale of action," Purcell said.

The increase doesn't come as a surprise, says James Nowlan, the City of Toronto's executive director of environment and climate. 

He called the rise "a rebound" from COVID-19 and lockdowns, noting that it does make reaching the city's goal of net-zero emissions by 2040 trickier.

"Any increase in emissions makes the challenge harder," he said. "It may seem far away but … that's a lot of work to be done in 15, 16 years."

Buildings are top emitter in GTHA 

Buildings make up the top source of urban emissions in the GTHA due to how much natural gas they use, but their emissions decreased by 0.6 per cent in 2023 — a fact the fund's report attributes to warmer winters requiring less heating.

Nowlan said the Toronto Green Standard for buildings is helping reduce emissions locally

"We're increasing the number of buildings, but the emissions aren't increasing at the same pace, and that really is a sign of success," he said.

Purcell agreed.

"The next priority really is improving the energy performance of existing homes and buildings, and municipalities have a key role there," he said.

Nowlan said that work is already being done.

"We've got a lot of programs currently in place, but we're also working on a whole number of programs that will come out in the coming years that will even further support the building sector," he said.

Emissions from electricity are up 

The report found that increased emissions were driven by almost every sector, however, those from electricity spiked by 30 per cent last year because of an increasing reliance on gas-fired power plants.

"That's partly because some of the nuclear power plants are being refurbished, so they're coming offline for a period of years, and partly because we haven't moved forward with building out the low carbon electricity supply in Ontario," Purcell said. 

"There's been limited investments over the last five years in new clean energy," he said.

Here's how Ontario currently meets its own energy needs, according to the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO).

More than half comes from nuclear plants and one quarter comes from hydro dams while gas and oil supply 13 per cent. Wind supplies eight per cent, per the IESO, while the remaining fraction of supply comes from a mix of solar and biofuel.

The province has "a plan to build new clean generation, including nuclear and hydro, to further reduce emissions from the sector," Joseph Colella, a spokesperson for the Minister of Energy and Electrification Stephen Lecce, said in an emailed statement.

"Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator has been clear that in the short term more natural gas would be needed to keep the lights on while we refurbish our zero-emissions nuclear stations and build new clean generation," he said.

Improvements in transportation

Despite transportation emissions rising in every region across the GHTA, the report found that there were positive trends with most cities seeing a rise in cycling and walking trips and more purchases of electric vehicles (EVs).

This is the area where ordinary citizens can take climate action by "looking at driving less and or transitioning to an electric vehicle," Purcell said.

However, CAA spokesperson Kristine D'Arbelles said "sticker shock" prevents most Canadians from making the switch — even though CAA numbers suggest buyers could break even within one to five years, from what they would save on gas and maintenance driving an EV.

"Not everyone has the money to be able to afford a $30,000 or $40,000 vehicle. I totally get that," D'Arbelles said.

Although cost is a hurdle, other provinces such as B.C. have provided subsidies that have successfully encouraged people to convert, she pointed out.

Many drivers may not be willing or able to make the switch, but the most recent statistics from the Parliamentary Budget Officer show that in 2023 EVs made up almost 11 per cent of new vehicle registrations Canada-wide, the first time that figure has surpassed 10 per cent nationally.

The cost efficiency of going green shows that transitioning to clean energy and tackling climate change need not be a story of doom and gloom, Purcell said.

"Climate action doesn't have to be a sacrifice that we make to address climate change," he said 

"Many of these things can improve our quality of life and save us money."