What the Ontario election candidates need to do for tonight's debate

With polls suggesting Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford commands a strong lead in the Ontario election, tonight's prime-time debate could be one of the last opportunities for the opposition leaders to deflate some of that support.

Last Friday afternoon, Ford, along with NDP Leader Marit Stiles, Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie and Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner faced off against each other in North Bay, Ont., where much of the focus of their first debate was related to northern issues.

Tonight's debate, taking place in Toronto just 10 days before voters go to the polls, will be seen by a much wider audience, raising the stakes for each candidates' performance.

This final debate of the campaign runs from 6:30-8 p.m. ET and will be moderated by David Common, the host of CBC Radio's Metro Morning. People can also watch the debate on CBC-TV, stream it online, get live updates, or listen on CBC Radio.

There will be no live audience and, unlike the debate in North Bay, candidate will be allowed to bring prepared notes.

CBC News spoke with political analysts, observers and academics about what each leader needs to do tonight:

Doug Ford

Ford triggered the snap election saying he needed a new mandate to deal with U.S. President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs. And he has since taken on a so-called "Captain Canada" mantle, becoming the unofficial advocate for not just the province, but the country. He has travelled to Washington and appeared in U.S. media to make the case against tariffs. 

Polls suggest these actions appear to be paying off politically. His job tonight, say some analysts, therefore should be to stick to the relatively simple message he has hammered throughout the campaign — that only he as premier is best suited to deal with Trump's tariff threat.

"If I'm the premier, I want to be focused on the economy and President Trump," said Adam Yahn, a partner with the government relations firm Summa Strategies Canada, who has worked with various Conservative politicians.

"Those are the areas that the PCs are seen as the leading party, the party best positioned to support and deliver on those issues."

Over the past seven years of government, and during the campaign, Ford has been able to sail through without much sticking to him and he should mostly ignore the criticisms that will be hurled at him during tonight's debate, Yahn said.

"Why even acknowledge what they're saying? Just stick to your lines and stick to your message," he said.

Jaskaran Sandhu, a political organizer and strategist with State Strategy, agrees that Ford should pay little attention to the other leaders, and bring everything back to Trump and tariffs.

"I would literally say, 'OK, well, as these two fight for who's the Opposition leader, I'm here to talk about the most important fight of how I'm going to deal with Trump."

Bonnie Crombie

For the Liberal leader, who has attempted to make the campaign more about health care than tariffs, the debate is an opportunity to bring that issue to the forefront, some analysts say.

"There's not a lot of room for error," said Liberal strategist Stevie O'Brien. "She needs to… cut through that noise and bring the focus back to health care."

The debate will give the former mayor of Mississauga, Ont., a chance to hammer Ford with troubling statistics about the provincial health-care system, in particular the number of Ontarians without a family doctor, O'Brien says.

(Some 2.5 million Ontarians don't have access to a family physician or regular access to any other primary care provider, such as a nurse practitioner, according to the Ontario College of Family Physicians.)

She has to "land those points well" in the debate, O'Brien said.

Crombie needs to be on the offensive about health care but not get tripped up by her association with the Liberal Party of the past, says Andrea Lawlor, an associate professor of political science at McMaster University in Hamilton.

"She has to do the careful dance of attacking on health care… but doing it in a way where she's not taking responsibility for the decisions made by the previous [Liberal] government and instead pointing to a completely different agenda," she said. 

However, Sandhu says Crombie should not so much focus on issues like health care or affordable housing, and instead present herself as the "anyone but PC" vote.

She should spend the whole debate "just blasting Ford," he said. "I wouldn't even engage the NDP."

Sandhu also says Crombie needs to hammer Ford over calling an "unnecessary election" — saying it was irresponsible and asking whether Ontarians should "reward someone who has plunged us into a winter election during a national crisis."

Marit Stiles

The NDP leader needs to differentiate herself from Crombie and the Liberals. But if she's looking to capitalize on the anti-Ford vote, recent polls show she's losing it to Crombie, says Peter Graefe, associate professor of political science at McMaster.

"She has to make the case that she's a defender of a certain, social vision of the province," he said.

Stiles needs to make the case that Crombie doesn't really represent the social values of the Liberal Party, that she is just another Ford, and that "if you want an alternate support, you should choose another real one." Graefe said.

Stiles would also benefit by making health care an issue during the debate and should take a swing at both the PC and Liberal records on this issue, says NDP strategist Kim Wright.

Wright says Stiles had a "great line" in the previous debate, that the Liberals "started hallway medicine and Doug Ford poured gasoline on it," referring to the lack of beds in hospitals, which forces patients into hallways and other rooms during peak demand.

Tonight, "she needs to continue to make those kinds of comparisons," Wright said. 

But despite her role as leader of the Opposition, Stiles still suffers from lack of name recognition and the debate will be the time for her to "not only introduce herself to Ontarians, but also make the point hat she's ready for governing," Wright said.

Mike Schreiner

The leader of the Green party could be seen as being in a "luxurious position'" as the fourth party candidate, Lawlor said.

"It's a big opportunity for him really to hit hard on Ford," she said. "He can swing for the fences here."

Schreiner was aggressive against Ford in the first debate. But his party currently holds just two seats in the Ontario Legislature and is tied to the issues of climate change and the environment when affordability and housing have dominated the campaign, says David Coletto, the founder and CEO of Abacus Data.

"The challenge for Mike Schreiner and the Greens is to position themselves as relevant in the debates," he said.

Schreiner's seat is likely safe, meaning, "he has the opportunity to bring himself a little bit more focus," Lawlor said.

"Because the last I saw, the recognition on his name is still pretty low."