Finnish community in Thunder Bay, Ont., watches Russian invasion of Ukraine with a wary eye

As Russia invades Ukraine, people around the world are also anxiously watching Russia's neighbours, wondering what could happen next.

NATO has ordered its military commanders to intensify preparations to defend allied territory, putting hundreds of warplanes and ships on alert, and has called a virtual emergency summit of its 30 member nations on Friday, along with leaders of the European Union, Sweden and Finland. 

• ​​​​​​Read more t​o learn the latest happening on the ground in Ukraine

Finland is not a member of the alliance, and President Sauli Niinisto reiterated his country would not apply for NATO membership in response to the Russian attack on Ukraine. 

But in Thunder Bay, Ont. — which has about 12,000 people of Finnish descent and boasts the largest population of Finnish people outside that country — there are questions about whether Finland would be better served being a member of the NATO alliance. 

Finland shares a 1,300-kilometre border with Russia and was part of the Russian Empire for just over 100 years prior to the Bolshevik Revolution. It fought Russia during the Second World War and maintained its independence throughout the Cold War. 

'Very real' security concerns

Still, concerns about the possibility of Russian aggression are "very real," said Pasi Pinta, honorary consul of Finland in Thunder Bay who spoke with CBC News on Wednesday, before Russia launched its attack.

"If Russia can do something like this to Ukraine, it can sure do that to others. So Finland has some choices to make," he said. "I would hope that Finland makes the decision and goes for the full NATO membership to be further united with a strong front against the bully."

But Saku Pinta, Pasi's brother and himself a scholar of Finnish labour history, said in a separate conversation that he believes Finland's position of neutrality between Russia and NATO serves it well.

"I think that Finnish membership in NATO could just serve to further provoke Russia," he said. "It's kind of like throwing water on a grease fire. I don't think that it's going to be helpful in this."

Pasi Pinta said it makes sense to avoid inflaming tensions with Russia where possible. But he compared NATO membership to fire insurance. 

"You want to buy fire insurance before anything burns," he said. "When things are burning, no one's going to sell you insurance anymore and you're not going to be able to get the benefit of that."

He also described the fear of angering Russia as a vestige of the policy known as Finlandization, which describes the shadow cast by the Soviet Union on Finland's foreign policy between the Second World War and the end of the Cold War. 

"Elected officials always looked at decisions that were made from the perspective of, 'What will the Soviets think about this?'" 

For Saku Pinta, neither Russia nor NATO can claim a moral high ground, and taking out NATO membership amounts to choosing sides in what he called an "inter-imperialist conflict." 

While Russia may have expansionist aspirations, NATO preserves the world order for Western-based capitalist interests, he said. 

"You would have thought that the whole reason for NATO's existence would have disappeared at the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union," he said. "But, you know, such was not the case. NATO, despite assurances to Russia, continued to expand into Europe." 

Saku Pinta does not believe Russia will invade Finland, he said.

But Pasi Pinta is concerned about the possibility, saying Russia's omnipotent leader and the small circle of wealthy oligarchs that support him may be doing what they think they need to do to hang on to power.

"That's really worrying, because then ... there's not really much common ground there that can be achieved through negotiations."