New report says Sudbury would be most resilient city in Canada in the face of U.S. tariffs

A new study suggests that Sudbury would be the most resilient city in Canada to the threat of U.S. tariffs. That's according to a new report from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

The chamber ranked Canada's 41 largest cities on their vulnerability to U.S. tariffs, compared to the Canadian average. 

Andrew DiCapua, a principal economist at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, and one of the study's authors, said the research looked at exports from the 41 cities and what share of those exports were going to the U.S.

"And then we look at another component, which is exports to the US relative to the local GDP [gross domestic product]," he said.

"If exports to the United States were to decrease, what would be that relative shock to the local economy?"

Because it is home to Canada's largest crude oil refinery, the report listed Saint John, N.B., as the most vulnerable city in Canada to potential U.S. tariffs. Calgary was second on the list.

"These are cities that are in the oil and gas industries where over 90 per cent of exports go to the United States," said DiCapua.

According to the report, Sudbury would be least affected by U.S. tariffs because its main exports are minerals, like nickel and copper, which are sold to a higher number of countries around the world.

According to Natural Resources Canada, the country exported 99,618 tonnes of unwrought nickel valued at $3.2 billion in 2023. The U.S. was the biggest customer, importing around 49 per cent of that volume, but the rest was divided among many other countries, including Japan, the Netherlands and China.

"Relative to other industries, 50 per cent is quite diversified," DiCapua said.

But DiCapua said U.S. tariffs would still have a significant impact across Canada, including in cities like Sudbury and Kamloops, B.C., which are less reliant on U.S. customers than others.

"So it doesn't mean that, for instance, Sudbury would be off the hook," he said.

"Sudbury still exports about $460 million to the United States, right? And of course, there are secondary issues when it comes to a slower economy and job losses. This really can impact a variety of different sectors."

While Canada can't divest itself from depending on the U.S. as its biggest trading partner, DiCapua said it will be important for politicians to continue looking for new trade opportunities with other countries.

The report did not include smaller northern Ontario cities such as Sault Ste. Marie and Timmins.