Federal polls analyst Éric Grenier talks 'shifting' weekend numbers

Morning North7:00Latest political poll numbers for the northeast

We spoke with Eric Grenier who studies polls for CBC News. He shared some of the latest numbers for northeastern ridings and explained what they mean. Have a listen and find out which party is polling highest in different parts of the northeast.

With three weeks left to the federal election, polling analysts are peering into the crystal ball for a glimpse of how this campaign with play out across the country — and in northeastern Ontario.

Éric Grenier of www.threehundredeight.com studies the polls for CBC News. On CBC Sudbury's Morning North radio program Monday, he said weekend numbers showed some interesting movement. 

"We're maybe in the midst of a little bit of shifting in the numbers, and we haven't seen much for a few weeks, so it's certainly something that's new," he said. 

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The new numbers could be bad news for the New Democrats. Grenier said the NDP have fallen back a little bit — about four-to-five points behind the Liberals and the Conservatives, though he said it remains to be seen whether the party will close that gap. 

Grenier points to the federal leader's debate in Montreal last week as a possible catalyst for the slight slide. 

"One of the biggest shifts that we've seen has been in Quebec," Grenier explained. "The New Democrats have been dropping [there]  ... and we've seen the Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois picking up some steam in the province." 

• Éric Grenier's Poll Tracker

As for the latest polling numbers in northeastern Ontario, Grenier didn't point to anything specific, "[but] when we look at where things are going in Ontario as a whole, it is certainly still a Liberal and Conservative race with the New Democrats falling back, which kind of replicates what we're seeing nation-wide." 

Grenier did offer this caveat for the region: "I don't know if [the NDP are] really under that much danger just yet, because a lot of the seats in the northeast [the party] won quite comfortably." 

At this point, it doesn't look like the Sault Ste. Marie riding, currently in the hands of Conservative MP Bryan Hayes, will go comfortably to anyone.

"We've actually had some local polling in the riding itself, which shows that it's this three-way race," said Grenier. 

Listen to the complete interview with polls analyst Éric Grenier here