Federal election campaign to heat up as northern Ontario voters say goodbye to summer

Knocking on doors on a sunny morning in Wahnapitae, Liberal incumbent Marc Serré runs through a list of all the federal funding he's brought to the area and then comes to the key question.

"Can I count on your support?" Serré asks.

"We'll see," says one man.

Serré says he really enjoys knocking on doors and speaking directly with citizens. That's been his focus so far in this campaign and doesn't think that will change over the last two weeks.

"Emotionally it's draining, because there's a lot of negativity. My role is to make sure I bring those concerns back," says Serré, who has held the Nickel Belt seat for the Liberals since 2015.

"A Nickel Belt campaign has always been about trying to get to where the people are, rather than trying to bring people in through a big big rally."

But Carol Hughes, the New Democrat incumbent in Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, expects the pressure to climb now that the Labour Day weekend is behind us.

"It's going to be bumped up for sure," says Hughes, who is looking for a fifth straight election win.

She says one challenge they've had in reaching voters in this campaign is that many have abandoned their landlines for cellphones, so there's been more focus on knocking on doors in the enormous riding, as well as rolling out radio ads and mailing out pamphlets this week. 

"You just get the machine all greased up and the next thing you know the campaign's just about over," says Hughes. 

Through August, the Conservatives have been leading in most national polls, to the surprise of some who were not expecting a close race.

"I think any politician who tells you they don't look at the polls is probably not telling you the whole truth, but you know, you never take your foot off the gas in an election campaign," says Scott Aitchison, the Conservative incumbent in Parry Sound-Muskoka.

He has also been helping out other Conservative candidates in northern Ontario, campaigning in ridings like Sault Ste. Marie and Sudbury.

"I was surprised at how many people are paying attention. Many people aren't thinking about it too deeply yet," Aitchison says.

CBC poll tracker Éric Grenier has also been wondering about how engaged voters truly are when looking at poll results through August. 

"People might not be as committed to their voting intentions right now," says the author of The Writ. 

"It'll mean much more in the last couple of weeks."

With many polls showing the Liberals and Conservatives in a dead heat, this is often the point in the campaign where NDP supporters debate voting strategically to keep the Tories from taking power.

But Grenier says the NDP already has a base of support in the north and actually has a chance to flip some seats on Sept. 20.

"So that strategic voting message might not be as strong in northern Ontario as it would be elsewhere," he says.

One of the big unknowns in this campaign is how many voters will cast a "special ballot" before election day, either in person at a returning office or through the mail.

Elections Canada says about 4,000 people in the seven ridings of northeastern Ontario have so far requested special ballots and about 1,000 have been returned. That compares with 11,000 people who voted this way in 2019.