Trends in northeast point to start of a fourth COVID-19 wave, says immunologist

COVID-19 case numbers in the northeast are starting to look worrisome to a local expert on infectious diseases.

Alain Simard, an associate professor with the Northern Ontario School of Medicine with a research specialty in immunology, said the numbers in northeastern Ontario show the region could be starting a fourth wave of infections.

Yesterday, the province announced there were 62 active cases in the northeast, including 40 in Sudbury-Manitoulin, 12 in the Algoma region and six in the Porcupine catchment area. 

"I'd say there are quite a few reasons that could potentially explain this," Simard said. "In Sudbury specifically, I think it's closer to around 38 percent of our population that's still unvaccinated."

Simard added COVID-19 vaccines are not currently approved for children under the age of 12, and they represent 10 per cent of the population in the region. 

"New variant data does show that there does seem to be more transmission among kids," he said.  "And in the States, for example, they are reporting more and more pediatric cases in the hospitals, which is something we didn't see too much at the beginning of the pandemic."

Simard said he continues to follow social distancing practices and has opted not to host indoor gatherings at his home. As a father of two, he said the data on the new variants is on his mind a lot.

Health unit wants 90 per cent vaccination coverage

"I think that it's actually fair to say that we are at the beginning of the fourth wave," said Nathalie Philippe, a public health nurse with Public Health Sudbury and Districts. "We've heard Dr. [Theresa] Tam talk about it."

Philippe said there have been three hospitalizations in Greater Sudbury due to COVID-19 since Aug. 2. She added that higher vaccination rates meant that even with a fourth wave, there should be fewer hospitalizations. 

"Vaccination does reduce the symptoms," she said. "So even if an individual does get COVID-19, even though they are immunized, it does reduce the likelihood of them being severely impacted by the illness." 

Philippe added the health unit encourages all residents who can to get vaccinated. "Our main target is to reach 90 per cent vaccination coverage," she said. "Having those two doses is really important.