Massive increase in Sask. wind power generation expected by 2040, says energy regulator

The national energy regulator thinks the amount of electricity generated by wind turbines will make up a significantly larger part of Saskatchewan's power mix in the future.

Earlier this week, the Canada Energy Regulator released a long-term forecast on energy in the country. Among its findings, the regulator predicts a massive spike in wind power generation by 2040.

"One factor is the phasing out of coal-fired power generation, which needs to be replaced by an alternative source of energy," said Jean-Denis Charlebois, the chief economist for the CER (formerly known as the National Energy Board).

"We see that gap being filled mostly by non-hydro renewables, including wind as well as natural gas."

According to SaskPower, wind power currently makes up about five per cent of the total on the electrical grid, with six facilities across southern Saskatchewan.

The report estimates Saskatchewan wind power generation will increase by 15 times by 2040, from the current load of 542 gigawatt hours (GWh) to an estimated 8,193 by 2040.

In January, the province signed a deal that would close the coal-fired Boundary Dam Unit 4 power station by the end of 2021 and Boundary Dam Unit 5 at the end of 2024.

Boundary Dam 3 can run beyond 2030, due to its use of carbon capture and sequestration technology.

As of now, the forecast doesn't predict the growth of small modular nuclear reactors as a source of electricity generation in the future. 

While Ontario, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick signed an agreement earlier this week to work together to research and build small modular reactors, or SMRs — nuclear reactors that are easy to construct, and can be small enough to fit in a school gym — the federal regulator believes it's still too early to add nuclear into its projections.

"Nuclear energy is and will continue to be an important part of the electricity mix in Canada, mostly in Ontario and New Brunswick, where there are actually nuclear reactors in operation as we speak," said Charlebois.

"We don't include them in our report at this time because there's just too much uncertainty about the timing and the scale at which it will be rolled out."

The regulator predicts demand for electricity will continue to rise in Saskatchewan. Power usage is expected to grow by 16 per cent by 2040.

"There is greater electrification in all sectors of the economy and that demand needs to be met somehow," said Charlebois. 

"The trend is to meet that demand in a less [greenhouse gas] intensive way by relying much less on coal and replacing that [with] renewable energy."

Meanwhile, the report forecasts increased oil and gas production in Saskatchewan in the future. The regulator predicts total crude oil production will increase from 529,000 barrels per day to 834,000 barrels per day.

The report said the regulator made the predictions based on continued growth in oil production as well as projected pipeline capacity.

Skeptical about numbers

However, a veteran member of Saskatchewan's wind power community remains unconvinced the growth will ever happen.

For more than 10 years, Glen Lux has been designing a vertical-axis wind turbine system he claims is significantly better than conventional horizontal axis models.

"We live in a province where oil and gas is seen as superior," said Lux.

"That's something that has to change."

While wind power is often criticized due to its intermittent nature, Lux said wind power systems are improving.

"I know the wind doesn't blow all the time but there are people coming up with battery storage ideas that are actually making sense," he said.

"A storage problem can kind of correct itself, and then wind energy is an excellent source of power."

Lux said more measures like the federally imposed carbon tax are needed to boost green power, but they're being communicated poorly to the province.

"People don't see it as being necessary," he said.

"I think the federal government could probably do a better job on explaining it to the common person, especially in Western Canada."

In August, Potentia Renewables broke ground on a $325-million wind facility near Assiniboia, Sask. The 200 megawatt facility is expected to be up and running by 2021.