Sask. premier has work cut out for him facing reality of another Liberal minority government
Governments in Sask. aren’t defeated by rival parties as much as they defeat themselves
This Opinion piece was written by Sarath Peiris, who spent his career at the Moose Jaw Times Herald and Saskatoon StarPhoenix. He was the StarPhoenix's opinions editor and editorial writer.
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Saskatchewan once again finds itself on the outside looking in after Monday's federal election, which saw the entire province covered in blue. Saskatchewan outdid even neighbouring Alberta to establish itself as the most Conservative of provinces.
With the overall result of another Liberal minority government, it would appear that Saskatchewan can look forward to a few more years — or 18 months, as Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole suggested in a peculiar "concession" speech — of being a supplicant at the Church of Our Lady of Eternal Grievance, with reverend Scott Moe pounding the pulpit.
Certainly, Saskatchewan has cause to be aggrieved at a Justin Trudeau-led minority, whose social and economic policies are often at odds with the conservative attitudes of this province, especially when it comes to the bread-and-butter issues of energy policy and carbon pricing.
Premier Moe futilely has fought tooth and nail against Trudeau's carbon pricing scheme, losing in the Supreme Court. Ignoring that his predecessor Brad Wall caved into former Conservative PM Stephen Harper on equalization payments, Moe has cast his lot with Alberta's Jason Kenney in demanding "fairness" for this province.
The next months and years will remain contentious, with plenty of fed bashing.
Yet after two consecutive elections that have resulted in a full slate of Opposition MPs forming the provincial delegation to Ottawa, it's difficult to see how Saskatchewan might influence federal policy to its advantage.
It's especially the case when powerbrokers associated with the Saskatchewan Party worked hard to oust Ralph Goodale from his Regina Wascana seat in 2019, removing the lone Liberal voice from Trudeau's cabinet. Say what you will of Goodale, but the man knew how to bring home the lolly, whether it was pushing to establish the synchrotron in Saskatoon or federal grants for the province's universities.
Replacing Goodale with a Conservative backbencher hasn't advanced Saskatchewan's interests one bit, with the latest election results likely serving only to cement in the prime minister's mind that this province remains a lost cause and "fly over" country for the Liberals in the coming term.
WATCH| Premier Scott Moe is calling Monday's vote the most pointless election in Canadian history:
The minority Trudeau was handed Monday means he will have to court support from the New Democrats and the Bloc Quebecois with concessions to accommodate their demands. For O'Toole, who tacked to the centre to appeal to seat-rich Ontario and Quebec, the results were no better than the 2019 election.
PPC gains votes
The "winner' in this muddle was Maxime Bernier's ultra-right People's Party, which gained votes across Canada. This was especially true in Saskatchewan's 14 ridings, where PPC support ranged from four per cent to six per cent in Regina and Saskatoon, to as much as 10 per cent and 12 per cent in smaller centres.
Even the Maverick Party got one per cent to seven per cent, suggesting that the more centrist policies O'Toole needs to appeal to Central Canada might be a tough sell in the west.
How this translates into provincial politics for Moe will be interesting.
The premier's inept handling of the COVID crisis has given residents plenty of reason to question his leadership, but it's difficult to foresee that the Saskatchewan Party's solid grip on power will slip anytime soon.
Governments in Saskatchewan really aren't defeated by rival parties as much as they defeat themselves through ennui or arrogance.
While Ryan Meili's NDP simply isn't connecting with voters in a way that threatens the Sask Party, Moe's actions suggest that he's concerned about losing votes to fringe parties on the right.
From his post-election speech in October — when he appealed not to NDPers but to those who voted for fringe parties on the right to work with his government — to his extreme caution on enacting mask mandates and requiring COVID immunization records until it was nearly too late to save the provincial health system from collapse, Moe's focus has been clear.
Yet, looking at Monday's election results, where the Conservative vote ranged from the 50-per-cent range in major cities to as high as 76 per cent in rural areas, it's hard to see just how much of an actual threat the fringe right poses to the Sask Party.
At 12 per cent in Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan, the PPC vote might be enough to concern the premier about an uptick on the far-right, but not enough to warrant his preoccupation.
Facing the reality of another Liberal minority government in Ottawa — one that owes little to Saskatchewan — Moe will have his work cut out for him.
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