Sask. has 2nd highest testing in Canada. Why don't we have enough data to closely project the peak?
Alberta, using its own data, projects that it will reach peak pandemic levels in late May
The COVID-19 modelling numbers presented Wednesday by the Saskatchewan Health Authority were eye-popping.
Under the best-case scenario, SHA is planning for 153,000 cases of COVID-19 infections and 3,075 deaths. Under the worst-case scenario, the province is projected to see 408,000 infections and 8,370 fatalities.
Projections out the same day from Alberta, with quadruple Saskatchewan's population, noted our neighbour was expecting 400 deaths under a best-case scenario and 3,100 deaths at worst. Even in Ontario, with 13 times Saskatchewan's population, the projected COVID-19 deaths are between 3,000 and 15,000.
The SHA took great care to explain that its "dynamic modelling" isn't predictive but is meant to provide information it can use to support Saskatchewan's response and preparedness to deal with the pandemic. But no one can blame citizens for gulping at the thought that a case total that stood at 271 on Wednesday could balloon to 400,000, or that the current toll of three deaths could hit more than 8,000.
The problem is that Saskatchewan's modelling is based on three scenarios based on the outcomes in other regions, among them China and Italy, unlike Alberta's projections based on data collected within the province.
The worst-case, scenario 1 (based on early Canadian estimates) assumes one COVID-19 infected person infecting four others even under current testing, physical distancing and contact tracing protocols. At the peak, this would require 4,265 patients to be in an acute care hospital simultaneously, with 1,280 of them in intensive care.
The best-case, scenario 3 (based on Wuhan) would see one infected person infecting 2.4 others and result in 390 COVID-19 patients in an acute care hospital simultaneously at the peak, with 120 in ICU.
Disquieting that Sask. is tight-lipped
Premier Scott Moe and chief health officer Saqib Shabab say the goal is for Saskatchewan to do better than scenario 3, even though Moe has no plans to change current levels of COVID-related restrictions to anything resembling the kind of ultra-draconian measures imposed on Wuhan residents by China.
While one needs to recognize that our health-care administrators and politicians are doing their best to tackle a horrific pandemic that's seemingly changing hour by hour, it's disquieting that Saskatchewan is sticking with its tight-lipped approach when it comes to sharing information.
Shahab's rationale for not identifying the community of an infected person — protection of privacy — is weak, especially when the community has several hundred people.
At a time when the government is ordering people to restrict their movement and stay away from loved ones, more openness about the extent of the problem can go a long way toward buying compliance instead of relying on fines or jailing.
Given the experience of jurisdictions such as Quebec, Ontario and Alberta that had cases earlier, does Saskatchewan really need to base its pandemic modelling on Italy or on Wuhan, a jurisdiction so vastly different from North America in its governance and social policies?
Why doesn't Sask. have data to project peak?
Good on Moe for asking provincial officials to increase testing for COVID-19 to 1,000 a day as soon as possible, and then to 1,500 a day by the end of April. And it's great that medical students will be asked to help with tracing those who've been in contact with infected persons — and nursing students asked to supplement their ranks if necessary.
But if Saskatchewan already does the second-highest amount of COVID testing in Canada, as Moe said, then why doesn't the health authority have enough homegrown data needed to more closely project the peak of the infection in Saskatchewan?
Alberta, using its own data, projects that it will reach peak pandemic levels in late May under its best-case scenario and early May if things get worse.
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Surely, with the available testing data and knowledge gleaned from elsewhere in Canada, SHA can do a better job of its modelling than to rely on Italian or Chinese data and provide a more precise estimate than reaching the peak here could take "weeks or months."
Certainly, public behaviour has a great bearing on how quickly the pandemic is brought under control, but the premier has stressed that a majority of citizens are heeding the calls for social distancing, hand-washing and other measures.
The lack of transparency from officials about what is happening with COVID-19 in communities across the province (except in larger centres) belies the message, "We're all in this together," and undermines public trust.
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