Sask. NDP fails to make gains in provincial election

Saskatchewan NDP supporters were hoping to make significant gains in this week's election, but those don't appear to have materialized.

Several close races have not yet been decided — tens of thousands of mail-in ballots will not be counted until later this week — but as of late Monday evening NDP candidates were projected to win or leading in 12 of 61 constituencies, one fewer than they had entering the campaign.

Supporters and academics said the party of Tommy Douglas and Roy Romanow didn't need to win to remain relevant, but there needed to be some tangible progress.

Pat Atkinson, a former NDP Finance and Education Minister who retired in 2011 as Saskatchewan's longest-serving female MLA, said that being a "government in waiting" required a minimum of 20 seats.

On Monday evening, NDP Leader Ryan Meili thanked his family, volunteers and fellow candidates in a concession speech.

"This is not the end. This is the beginning," he said. "Do not give up because we can in Saskatchewan do so much better than what we've seen ... we will fight for you."

Meili's seat in Saskatoon-Meewasin is one of those still undecided.

"It has been an honour to serve as your MLA and I'd like to continue to do so. We'll find out a bit more about that later," Meili said.

Former interim leader Nicole Saraurer, who retained her Regina seat, said she's excited to continue advocating NDP policies with Meili and her colleagues.

"I think we're going to keep doing the work we've been doing," she said.

CBC polls analyst Eric Grenier said the current numbers showing the NDP getting 28 per cent of the popular vote would be one of the lowest totals in party history, but he noted surveys showed NDP voters are much more open than Saskatchewan Party voters to cast mail-in ballots.

Some urban seats received more than 2,000 requests for mail-in ballots, which have not yet been counted and could change some results, he said.

In the long term, Atkinson said the party needs to consolidate its support in Saskatoon, Regina and the North, then take back the seats in Moose Jaw, Prince Albert and other cities it held during much of her tenure.

Atkinson, who comes from a farm family in the Biggar area, said the party also needs to find a way to appeal to rural voters in areas now completely dominated by the governing Saskatchewan Party.

University of Saskatchewan professor emeritus of political studies John Courtney agreed that 20 seats for the NDP would have given the party reason for optimism. But for the party to actually win in the future, something major will have to change, he said.

"So long as the Sask Party controls the rural constituencies, and can do reasonably well in the cities, I don't really see [the NDP having] much room to manoeuver."

Howard Leeson, professor emeritus of political studies at the University of Regina, said the NDP needed "to show they're at least going in the right direction," but even gaining a few seats in Regina and Saskatoon wouldn't have been enough for that.

Leeson and Courtney said the NDP's traditional message and platform isn't resonating with everyone, and it's unclear whether any needed changes can occur within the party's current structure.

Some have suggested forming a new party made of NDP, Liberal, Green and disgruntled Saskatchewan Party supporters, much as the Saskatchewan Party did when it was formed by former Progressive Conservatives and some Liberals 23 years ago.

"That could absolutely be one of the options out there," Leeson said, noting next year is the 60th anniversary of the formation of the NDP from a merger between the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF) and the Canadian Labour Congress.

Atkinson said she's putting all her efforts into supporting a strong Saskatchewan NDP, but said she's open to any changes that will help bring the necessary changes.

"I'd never say never," Atkinson said. "I suppose it would depend."

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