Sask. premier says federal net-zero electricity targets would double power rates, experts dispute that
Experts say proposed transition is possible for province
Premier Scott Moe said the federal government's proposed clean energy regulations are "unachievable" for the province and would "at least double the power rates," but experts dispute those claims.
Last week, Federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault released Ottawa's proposed Clean Electricity Rules. They are intended to pave the way to a net-zero power grid — not a fossil fuel-free grid — in Canada by 2035.
Saskatchewan officials have said the targets will be impossible to meet. A SaskPower spokesperson said the province will "greatly reduce GHG emissions as we approach 2035, but achieving net-zero isn't feasible technically, logistically, or financially." They declined CBC's request for an interview.
Provinces have been given time to comment on the rules before they are finalized.
"There could be a productive conversation to work on the details of the policy without the wholesale rejection," Brett Dolter, assistant professor in the department of economics at University of Regina, said.
He said the transition is feasible for the province, especially because the new regulations don't mean the end of natural gas power generation.
The government can build new plants with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) infrastructure attached to them while the old ones can run until the end of their life, Dolter said.
"The other option is you run them less frequently. You use them as a backup when wind or solar energy aren't available, you could have the gas plant come online to give power," he said.
By the proposed regulations, CCS infrastructure will be mandatory after January 2025. That transition will be supported with a 50 per cent tax credit, Dolter said.
He also said the new natural gas plant that is currently under construction in Moose Jaw should be built by 2024, meaning it can go ahead without CCS and run like that for 20 years.
Dolter said the province is well-positioned to capture carbon and store it in the ground. The availability of wind and solar energy in the province is an added benefit.
"Can we produce wind and solar for less of the cost of buying that gas from Alberta? Increasingly, the answer is yes."
Experts want to see numbers behind cost claims
Saskatchewan is currently targeting a non-emitting grid by 2050. Dolter believes the province should expedite the goals indicated in that plan. Last week, Moe said accelerating the existing plan would cost people.
"It will at least double the power rates in the province, so we can't afford it," he said.
Dolter said the draft regulations included economic analysis that estimates a 0.9 cent increase per kilowatt-hour for residential power usage.
"It's far from doubling. It's not even a 10 per cent increase," he noted.
David Maenz, a climate analyst and author of the book The Price of Carbon, said modeling from the Canada Energy Regulator shows that reaching "slightly negative emissions" by 2035 is possible with no projected increase in electricity rates.
"There is a direct modeling from a reputable and highly authoritative organization that challenges what Premier and SaskPower is saying," he said. "Reaching net zero can be done but it requires different political cooperation."
Bob Halliday, who is vice-president of Saskatchewan Environmental Society, said the claim of doubling costs is "nonsense."
"Thus far, SaskPower has refused to release scenarios that lead to doubling of costs. It has been requested under Freedom of Information but it hasn't been released."
Experts say urgent action needed
Halliday said there has been a lack of political will to move toward the renewable sector in the last decade. Now, he said there is an urgent need to modernize the grid — especially in the face of more severe winters and droughts.
Dolter said continued inaction on climate change increase conditions that subsequently increase people's power consumption. For example, he said he had to run air conditioners and air purifiers for long periods of time this hot, dry summer to deal with the heat and the smoky air caused by an unprecedented wildfire season.
"[I] wanted to keep my kids cool and safe and that doubled my SaskPower bill," he said.
"Not dealing with climate change doesn't save us money. It just means we're paying with our health and our children's future."
$2.6 billion on the table for Sask.
The federal government has committed at least $40 billion to support the transition across the country. According to Maenz, Saskatchewan will be getting the highest amount on a per gigawatt hour basis — $2.6 billion — to cover costs for the transition.
Climate analyst Maenz said emissions from electricity generation in Saskatchewan have "not declined at all from 2005" whereas across the country there has been a 50 per cent reduction.
In 2020, Saskatchewan's emissions per capita were the highest in Canada at 216 per cent above the then national average. Maenz said that has not changed much.
"The time has come to stop squabbling with the federal government and to act."
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